LIVE 06:49 4th Dec 26
TOR 113 10.5 o241.0
MEM 142 -10.5 u241.0
LIVE 01:04 4th Dec 26
HOU 125 -7.0 o221.5
NO 108 7.0 u221.5
LIVE 03:28 4th Dec 26
BK 99 6.0 o205.5
MIL 97 -6.0 u205.5
LIVE 11:39 1st Dec 26
DET 3 5.0 o226.5
SAC 0 -5.0 u226.5
UTA 3.0 o228.0
POR -3.0 u228.0
Final Dec 26
MIA 89 1.0 o209.0
ORL 88 -1.0 u209.0
Final Dec 26
CHA 110 -4.5 o231.0
WAS 113 4.5 u231.0
Final Dec 26
OKC 120 -5.0 o227.5
IND 114 5.0 u227.5
Final Dec 26
CHI 133 5.0 o240.5
ATL 141 -5.0 u240.5
Miami 6th EASTERN CONFERENCE15-13
Boston 2nd EASTERN CONFERENCE22-8

Miami @ Boston props

TD Garden

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jaime Jaquez Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

In contrast to last year's 28.3 rate, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s playing time has fallen this year to 21.2 minutes per game. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). In contrast to last season's 82.3% clip, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s foul-shot prowess has declined this season to 63.8%.

Jaime Jaquez

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.4
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.4

In contrast to last year's 28.3 rate, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s playing time has fallen this year to 21.2 minutes per game. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). In contrast to last season's 82.3% clip, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s foul-shot prowess has declined this season to 63.8%.

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8
Best Odds
Over
-103
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
8
Best Odds
Over
-103
Projection Rating

Haywood Highsmith has converted 51.8% of his shot attempts from the field when playing away from home this year, putting him in the 77th percentile out of all players in the NBA. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. Haywood Highsmith has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 36.7% more than he's made overall this year. The matchup vs. Boston is a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a colossal 3.9 foul shots per game this year when the Celtics have the home court advantage (8th-most in the league).

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8

Haywood Highsmith has converted 51.8% of his shot attempts from the field when playing away from home this year, putting him in the 77th percentile out of all players in the NBA. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. Haywood Highsmith has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 36.7% more than he's made overall this year. The matchup vs. Boston is a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a colossal 3.9 foul shots per game this year when the Celtics have the home court advantage (8th-most in the league).

Neemias Queta Points Scored Props • Boston

N. Queta
center C • Boston
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.8
Best Odds
Over
+104
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.8
Best Odds
Over
+104
Projection Rating

Neemias Queta has tallied 24.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 4.9 higher than he's tallied overall this year at home. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo registers in the 100th percentile with the other team's starting Cs scoring an enormous 56.9% of their attempts from downtown this year. The matchup vs. Bam Adebayo is a positive one for getting to the foul line; when Adebayo is on the road fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a colossal 3.5 foul shots per game (81st percentile). Neemias Queta will likely get a boost in effectiveness in all stat categories as a result of owning the home court advantage in this game.

Neemias Queta

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.8
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.8

Neemias Queta has tallied 24.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 4.9 higher than he's tallied overall this year at home. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo registers in the 100th percentile with the other team's starting Cs scoring an enormous 56.9% of their attempts from downtown this year. The matchup vs. Bam Adebayo is a positive one for getting to the foul line; when Adebayo is on the road fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a colossal 3.5 foul shots per game (81st percentile). Neemias Queta will likely get a boost in effectiveness in all stat categories as a result of owning the home court advantage in this game.

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
26.5
Points Scored
Projection
29.3
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
26.5 Points Scored
Projection
29.3
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

Jayson Tatum has notched 26.7 points per game at home this year, placing him in the 97th percentile -- one of the best in the NBA in this category. In contrast to last year's 8.0 mark, Jayson Tatum's shot attempts from downtown have spiked this year to 10.5 per game. Jayson Tatum has tallied 36.3 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 96th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for 3-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest three percentage in the league this year (43.4%).

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 26.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29.3
Prop:
26.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29.3

Jayson Tatum has notched 26.7 points per game at home this year, placing him in the 97th percentile -- one of the best in the NBA in this category. In contrast to last year's 8.0 mark, Jayson Tatum's shot attempts from downtown have spiked this year to 10.5 per game. Jayson Tatum has tallied 36.3 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 96th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for 3-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest three percentage in the league this year (43.4%).

Jordan Walsh Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Walsh
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
4.5
Points Scored
Projection
4.2
Best Odds
Under
+104
Prop
4.5 Points Scored
Projection
4.2
Best Odds
Under
+104
Projection Rating

Jordan Walsh has been on the court for 8.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court far less than most players in the NBA: 8th percentile. The slowest pace home team in the league this year has been the Boston Celtics. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark added chances for scoring and assists, but the Celtics grade out 4thworst in in the NBA on their home court with just 8.6 offensive boards per game this year. Compared to last season's 50.0% rate, Jordan Walsh's foul-shot performance has regressed this season to 0.0%.

Jordan Walsh

Prop: 4.5 Points Scored
Projection: 4.2
Prop:
4.5 Points Scored
Projection:
4.2

Jordan Walsh has been on the court for 8.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court far less than most players in the NBA: 8th percentile. The slowest pace home team in the league this year has been the Boston Celtics. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark added chances for scoring and assists, but the Celtics grade out 4thworst in in the NBA on their home court with just 8.6 offensive boards per game this year. Compared to last season's 50.0% rate, Jordan Walsh's foul-shot performance has regressed this season to 0.0%.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.1
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
24.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.1
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. the Celtics is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 2.3 free throws per game this year (least in the NBA). Tyler Herro will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally worsens player performance for all stats.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.1
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.1

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. the Celtics is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 2.3 free throws per game this year (least in the NBA). Tyler Herro will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally worsens player performance for all stats.

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.3
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
25.3
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Jaylen Brown has converted 3.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's converted from three over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Jaylen Brown slots into the 95th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 35.9 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SGs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). In contrast to last season's 4.5 rate, Jaylen Brown's number of free throw attempts has increased this season to 6.8 free throw attempts per game.

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.3
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.3

Jaylen Brown has converted 3.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's converted from three over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Jaylen Brown slots into the 95th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 35.9 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SGs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). In contrast to last season's 4.5 rate, Jaylen Brown's number of free throw attempts has increased this season to 6.8 free throw attempts per game.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Duncan Robinson has attempted 6.8 3-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among all players in the NBA. Duncan Robinson has played 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 5.4 more than he's played over the course of the season on the road. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a strong one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 2nd-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8). Duncan Robinson has sunk 88.9% of his free throws when playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile out of all players in the league.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.5
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.5

Duncan Robinson has attempted 6.8 3-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among all players in the NBA. Duncan Robinson has played 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 5.4 more than he's played over the course of the season on the road. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a strong one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 2nd-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8). Duncan Robinson has sunk 88.9% of his free throws when playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile out of all players in the league.

Payton Pritchard Points Scored Props • Boston

P. Pritchard
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
15.5 Points Scored
Projection
16.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Payton Pritchard has converted a terrific 3.7 three-point shots per game this season, significantly more than his 1.7 rate last season. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SGs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). Among all players in the league, Payton Pritchard places in the 89th percentile for free-throw prowess with a very good 90.6% rate this year. Payton Pritchard will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium generally increases player production in all facets of the game.

Payton Pritchard

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.7
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.7

Payton Pritchard has converted a terrific 3.7 three-point shots per game this season, significantly more than his 1.7 rate last season. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SGs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). Among all players in the league, Payton Pritchard places in the 89th percentile for free-throw prowess with a very good 90.6% rate this year. Payton Pritchard will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium generally increases player production in all facets of the game.

Luke Kornet Points Scored Props • Boston

L. Kornet
center C • Boston
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Luke Kornet has converted 62.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 7.9% more than he's sunk over the course of the season. Luke Kornet has made 100.0% of his attempts from downtown since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile out of all players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo registers in the 100th percentile with the other team's starting Cs scoring an enormous 56.9% of their attempts from downtown this year. The matchup vs. Bam Adebayo is a positive one for getting to the foul line; when Adebayo is on the road fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a colossal 3.5 foul shots per game (78th percentile).

Luke Kornet

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.1
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.1

Luke Kornet has converted 62.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 7.9% more than he's sunk over the course of the season. Luke Kornet has made 100.0% of his attempts from downtown since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile out of all players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo registers in the 100th percentile with the other team's starting Cs scoring an enormous 56.9% of their attempts from downtown this year. The matchup vs. Bam Adebayo is a positive one for getting to the foul line; when Adebayo is on the road fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a colossal 3.5 foul shots per game (78th percentile).

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.9
Best Odds
Over
-106
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.9
Best Odds
Over
-106
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier slots into the 75th percentile for shot attempts from downtown when playing on the road, averaging 5.1 per game this year. Terry Rozier has tallied 30.1 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 75th percentile. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; when the Boston Celtics are on their home court, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled the 4th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.8).

Terry Rozier

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.9
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.9

Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier slots into the 75th percentile for shot attempts from downtown when playing on the road, averaging 5.1 per game this year. Terry Rozier has tallied 30.1 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 75th percentile. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; when the Boston Celtics are on their home court, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled the 4th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.8).

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.9
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
17.9
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Derrick White has totaled 18.3 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 85th percentile. Derrick White has converted a whopping 3.8 shots from downtown per game this season, a big improvement over his 2.8 rate last season. Derrick White has tallied 34.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 90th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).

Derrick White

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.9
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.9

Derrick White has totaled 18.3 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 85th percentile. Derrick White has converted a whopping 3.8 shots from downtown per game this season, a big improvement over his 2.8 rate last season. Derrick White has tallied 34.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 90th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.3
Best Odds
Over
-143
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.3
Best Odds
Over
-143
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has attempted 13.8 shots from the field per game this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has converted 53.3% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games on the road, 18.7% more than he's converted overall this season on the road. Bam Adebayo has played 35.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 94th percentile. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo slots into the 88th percentile for getting to the charity stripe, posting a colossal 4.1 free throw attempts per game this year.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.3
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.3

Bam Adebayo has attempted 13.8 shots from the field per game this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has converted 53.3% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games on the road, 18.7% more than he's converted overall this season on the road. Bam Adebayo has played 35.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 94th percentile. As it relates to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 113.0 points per game on the road measures as the 9th-most in the league over the last 10 games. Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo slots into the 88th percentile for getting to the charity stripe, posting a colossal 4.1 free throw attempts per game this year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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