BOS -5.5 o200.5
ORL 5.5 u200.5
IND 5.0 o229.0
MIL -5.0 u229.0
LAL 3.5 o208.0
MIN -3.5 u208.0
Dallas 10th WESTERN CONFERENCE39-43
Phoenix 11th WESTERN CONFERENCE36-46

Dallas @ Phoenix picks

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DAL vs PHO Picks

NBA Picks
Total Assists
N. Marshall u2.5 Total Assists
Projection 2 (Under)
Best Odds
u2.5 +135 bet365
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
2.5 -165
2.5 +135
2.5 -175
2.5 +130
2.5 -145
2.5 +114

The Mavericks are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the most sluggish pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games (the Suns). Naji Marshall is expected to experience a decrease in productivity across the board due to being on the road in this contest.

Points Scored
Q. Grimes o9.5 Points Scored
Projection 12.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o9.5 +100 betmgm
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
9.5 +100
9.5 -135
10.5 -118
10.5 -113
9.5 -109
9.5 -125
9.5 -125
9.5 -105
9.5 -122
9.5 +100

Quentin Grimes has sunk 48.9% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 5.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists). Quentin Grimes has sunk 94.4% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 13.5% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year without the home court advantage. The matchup against the Phoenix Suns may be a good one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a whopping 3.4 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (4th-most in the league).

Total Rebounds
P. Washington u8.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 7.2 (Under)
Best Odds
u8.5 +106 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
7.5 -150
7.5 +110
8.5 -139
8.5 +106
7.5 -147
7.5 +108
8.5 +110
8.5 -140
8.5 +100
8.5 -122

The Mavericks are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the most sluggish pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games (the Suns). P.J. Washington stands to see a decline in effectiveness in all stat categories in light of being on the road in this game.

Points Scored
D. Lively II o8.5 Points Scored
Projection 10.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -103 caesars
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
8.5 -105
8.5 -130
8.5 -125
8.5 -107
8.5 -103
8.5 -133
8.5 -110
8.5 -120

Dereck Lively II has successfully made 67.7% of his shot attempts from the field while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 97th percentile out of all players in the league. The number of points registered against Jusuf Nurkic has been remarkably high (18.3 per game) when facing other starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists). The showdown with Jusuf Nurkic when it comes to getting to the foul line places in just the 96th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting a colossal 4.4 foul shots per game this year.

Points Scored
N. Marshall o7.5 Points Scored
Projection 9.9 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -125 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
11.5 -120
11.5 -110
7.5 -125
7.5 -106
11.5 -109
11.5 -125
12.5 -115
12.5 -115
11.5 +100
11.5 -122

Naji Marshall has made 57.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games on the road, 28.5% higher than he's made from three in all games this year when playing away from home. The matchup vs. Phoenix is a strong one for three-point shots; when the Phoenix Suns have the home court advantage, opposing starting SFs have tallied the 10th-most shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (1.9). The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists). In comparison to last year's 80.7% clip, Naji Marshall's free-throw performance has risen this year to 90.1%.

Total Rebounds
Q. Grimes o3.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 5.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o3.5 -124 fanduel
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 -125
3.5 -110
3.5 -155
3.5 +116
3.5 -128
3.5 -106
4.5 +114
4.5 -145
3.5 -124
3.5 +102

Quentin Grimes has put up 1.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 0.5 more than he's put up overall this season. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).

Points Scored
D. Gafford o12.5 Points Scored
Projection 14.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o12.5 -105 draftkings
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
12.5 -105
12.5 -125
12.5 -120
12.5 -114
12.5 -105
12.5 -125
12.5 -110
12.5 -110

Among all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford ranks in the 98th percentile for shooting efficiency while playing away from home with an excellent 75.5% rate this year. The number of points registered against Jusuf Nurkic has been remarkably high (18.3 per game) when facing other starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists). Among all players in the league, Daniel Gafford comes in at the 79th percentile for drawing fouls, tallying a massive 3.0 free throw attempts per game without the home court advantage this year.

Points Scored
R. O'Neale o9.5 Points Scored
Projection 11.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o9.5 -120 caesars
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
9.5 -122
9.5 -109
9.5 -120
9.5 -114
9.5 -125
9.5 -105
9.5 -132
9.5 +108

Royce O'Neale has successfully made 3.3 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 higher than he's converted from downtown over the course of the year. In regard to shots from downtown, the Suns's superb 38.4% rate of converted threes settles in as the 4th-highest in the league this year. The Suns will likely get a boost in plays in this game from facing the 6th-speediest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Mavericks). Royce O'Neale has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games, 27.5% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season. Royce O'Neale will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage tends to increase stat production in all facets of the game.

Points Scored
B. Beal u21.5 Points Scored
Projection 19.5 (Under)
Best Odds
u21.5 -110 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 119 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
21.5 -110
21.5 -120
21.5 -121
21.5 -110
21.5 -103
21.5 -133
21.5 -110
21.5 -120
21.5 -102
21.5 -120

Bradley Beal has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game while at home this year, ranking in the 84th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone. The rate of shots converted against Klay Thompson has been quite low (41.3%) when matched up against other starting SGs this year (20th percentile). The Phoenix Suns have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Suns rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Mavericks may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (6th-least in the league).

DAL vs PHO Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

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65% picking Phoenix

35%
65%

Total Picks DAL 250, PHO 456

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DAL
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