Miami @ Houston props

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has failed to convert 6.4 field goal attempts per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.3 higher than he's missed overall this season while playing on the road. Among all players in the league, Jaime Jaquez Jr. places in the 14th percentile for three-point prowess with a poor 22.9% rate this year. This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting SFs have shot 26.1% on three-pointers (2nd-worst in the NBA) vs. the Rockets, designating this as a difficult matchup. The 2nd-most sluggish tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PGs have registered 12.8 points per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Rockets, resulting in a challenging matchup for offensive performance. The 2nd-most sluggish tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Houston may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 1.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Houston Rockets are playing at home (least in the league). Tyler Herro is expected to see a decline in output in all stat categories on account of being on the road in this matchup.

The Miami Heat rank as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing away from home in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. The Rockets have played at the 7th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Heat. Terry Rozier has successfully made 84.9% of his free throws this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among all players in the NBA.

Among all players in the NBA, Alperen Sengun registers in the 24th percentile for 3-point proficiency with the home court advantage with an unimpressive 25.0% rate this year. In terms of threes, the Houston Rockets's feeble 32.2% rate of sunk threes comes in as the 2nd-worst in the NBA this year. The Rockets are expected to see a decline in possessions in this game from competing against the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat).

The matchup against Houston is a challenging one for three-pointers; when the Rockets have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting SGs have shot for the lowest three percentage in the NBA this year (24.8%). The 2nd-most sluggish tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Duncan Robinson will likely suffer a reduction in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this matchup.

Dillon Brooks has converted 7.0 baskets per game over the last 5 games at home, 2.1 more than he's made overall this season with the home court advantage. Dillon Brooks has attempted 8.0 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 more than he's attempted in all games this season. Dillon Brooks has averaged 36.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.3 more than he's averaged in all games this year. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 three attempts per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a strong matchup. The Houston Rockets have played at the 7th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.

Out of all players in the league, Jalen Green ranks in the 90th percentile for shots when playing at home, posting 15.7 per game this year. Jalen Green has attempted 7.7 three-point shots per game this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among all players in the league. Jalen Green has been on the court for 32.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 84th percentile. The matchup against Miami is a good one for three-point attempts; when the Miami Heat are away from home, opposing starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8). The Houston Rockets have played at the 7th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.

Jabari Smith Jr. has played 38.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games while at home, 6.1 higher than he's played over the course of the season at home. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 43.4% on 3-pointers (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, resulting in a favorable matchup. The Houston Rockets have played at the 7th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games. The Rockets have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists). Jabari Smith Jr. has missed 0.1 free throw attempts per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 25th percentile for misses at home.

Fred VanVleet has tallied 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (76th percentile). In terms of threes, the Houston Rockets's feeble 32.2% rate of sunk threes comes in as the 2nd-worst in the NBA this year. The Rockets are expected to see a decline in possessions in this game from competing against the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat).

The matchup against the Rockets is a hard one for threes; the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (21.7%). The 2nd-most sluggish tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Out of all players in the NBA, Haywood Highsmith lands in the 17th percentile for free-throw ability with a weak 63.9% rate this year. Haywood Highsmith will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player performance for all stats.

Bam Adebayo has converted 52.9% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 7.5% more than he's sunk overall this season. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo measures in the 94th percentile for playing time, registering a whopping 35.1 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing away from home in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. The Rockets have played at the 7th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Heat. Bam Adebayo has attempted 4.0 free throws per game on the road this year, placing him in the 88th percentile out of all players in the NBA.