Boston @ Dallas picks

Daniel Gafford has made 75.4% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 6.8% more than he's made over the course of the season. Daniel Gafford has averaged 28.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.3 higher than he's averaged overall this season. As it relates to offense, the Mavericks's impressive 115.3 points per game settles in as the 10th-most in the league this year. Daniel Gafford has attempted 5.1 foul shots per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.4 more than he's attempted over the course of the year at home. Daniel Gafford is expected to see a rise in productivity in all stat categories in light of holding the home court advantage in this game.

The Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the slowest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Boston Celtics). The Mavericks have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Out of all players in the NBA, Jrue Holiday places in the 80th percentile for playing time, posting an enormous 30.7 minutes per game this year. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled 2.8 3-pointers per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Mavericks, identifying this as a strong matchup. Offensive rebounds continue possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 9th-best in in the NBA with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. Jrue Holiday has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 15.9% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year without the home court advantage.