LIVE 06:20 4th Apr 25
BOS 80 -5.5 o200.0
ORL 86 5.5 u200.0
LIVE 08:06 3rd Apr 25
IND 62 4.5 o229.0
MIL 62 -4.5 u229.0
LAL 4.0 o207.5
MIN -4.0 u207.5
Miami 10th EASTERN CONFERENCE37-45
Brooklyn 12th EASTERN CONFERENCE26-56

Miami @ Brooklyn picks

Barclays Center

MIA vs BK Picks

NBA Picks
Points Scored
J. Wilson u12.5 Points Scored
Projection 9.1 (Under)
Best Odds
u12.5 -130 betmgm
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
12.5 +100
12.5 -130
10.5 +100
10.5 -130
11.5 -104
11.5 -118

In comparison to last year's 50.8% clip, Jalen Wilson's scoring prowess has regressed this year to 40.7%. The 3rd-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nets. The Nets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Points Scored
D. Russell u17.5 Points Scored
Projection 14 (Under)
Best Odds
u17.5 -125 betmgm
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
17.5 -105
17.5 -125
16.5 -110
16.5 -120
16.5 -106
16.5 -114

In comparison to last year's 14.2 rate, D'Angelo Russell's shots have fallen this year to 10.8 per game. In comparison to last season's 33.0 clip, D'Angelo Russell's playing time has dropped this season to 25.9 minutes per game. The 3rd-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nets. The Nets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Total Assists
D. Russell u7.5 Total Assists
Projection 5.4 (Under)
Best Odds
u7.5 -135 bet365
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
7.5 +105
7.5 -135
7.5 +105
7.5 -145
7.5 +114
7.5 -145
7.5 +114
7.5 -140

In comparison to last season's 33.0 clip, D'Angelo Russell's playing time has dropped this season to 25.9 minutes per game. The 3rd-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nets. The Nets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Total Assists
Z. Williams o1.5 Total Assists
Projection 1.7 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 +180 bet365
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
1.5 +180
1.5 -230
1.5 +170
1.5 -235

The Brooklyn Nets are expected to see an increase in possessions today from facing the 6th-fastest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 23 games (the Miami Heat). Ziaire Williams should get a boost in productivity in all stat categories due to having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Points Scored
B. Simmons o5.5 Points Scored
Projection 7.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 -105 fanduel
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
6.5 +110
6.5 -145
6.5 +100
6.5 -132
5.5 -120
5.5 -110
5.5 -105
5.5 -115

With respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league this year has been the Nets. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Brooklyn Nets are expected to see an increase in possessions today from facing the 6th-fastest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 23 games (the Miami Heat). Ben Simmons has successfully made 1.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 more than he's sunk overall this season while at home. The matchup vs. the Heat may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a massive 5.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

Total Rebounds
Z. Williams o3.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 5 (Over)
Best Odds
o3.5 -114 fanduel
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 -125
3.5 -105
4.5 +107
4.5 -141
3.5 -140
3.5 +110
3.5 -114
3.5 -106

Ziaire Williams has totaled 3.6 defensive rebounds per game this year, ranking in the 78th percentile -- among the hottest players in the NBA by this standard recently. The Brooklyn Nets are expected to see an increase in possessions today from facing the 6th-fastest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 23 games (the Miami Heat). Ziaire Williams should get a boost in productivity in all stat categories due to having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Points Scored
J. Jaquez o8.5 Points Scored
Projection 10.8 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -124 fanduel
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
9.5 +100
9.5 -135
8.5 -125
8.5 -105
8.5 -124
8.5 +102

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has successfully made 50.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 21.5% higher than he's made from three over the course of the season. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has averaged 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.7 higher than he's averaged overall this season. When it comes to 3-pointers, the Heat's outstanding 14.1 converted threes per game while playing on the road settles in as the 7th-most in the NBA this year. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo away offense in the league over the last 23 games has been the Miami Heat. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 24.1% higher than he's converted overall this year.

Total Assists
B. Simmons o4.5 Total Assists
Projection 6.8 (Over)
Best Odds
o4.5 -150 bet365
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
4.5 -150
4.5 +120
4.5 -155
4.5 +115
5.5 -112
5.5 -120
5.5 -125
5.5 -105
5.5 -110
5.5 -110

Ben Simmons has put up 8.2 assists per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's put up in all games this season. The Brooklyn Nets are expected to see an increase in possessions today from facing the 6th-fastest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 23 games (the Miami Heat). Ben Simmons will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium generally raises player production across the board.

Total Rebounds
J. Wilson u3.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 3.2 (Under)
Best Odds
u3.5 +120 betmgm
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 -160
3.5 +120
3.5 -110
3.5 -120
3.5 -124
3.5 +102

The 3rd-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nets. The Nets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Total Rebounds
N. Clowney o4.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 5.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o4.5 +100 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 90 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
4.5 -150
4.5 +115
4.5 +100
4.5 -134
4.5 -135
4.5 +105
4.5 -110
4.5 -110

Noah Clowney has compiled 4.2 defensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 1.1 higher than he's compiled in all games this year at home. Noah Clowney has tallied 29.8 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.7 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year. The Brooklyn Nets are expected to see an increase in possessions today from facing the 6th-fastest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 23 games (the Miami Heat). Noah Clowney will possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage generally increases player performance in all facets of the game.

MIA vs BK Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

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Spread

68% picking Brooklyn

32%
68%

Total Picks MIA 167, BK 349

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