Miami @ Philadelphia picks

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the league this year. The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from facing the slowest tempo home offense in the NBA this year (the 76ers). Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 1stworst in in the league with a mere 8.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. Tyler Herro is expected to suffer a reduction in performance in all facets of the game considering playing away from home in this matchup.

Tyrese Maxey has tallied 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's tallied in all games this season. The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the most lethargic pace in the league at home this year. The Heat have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the 76ers. The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson has attempted 6.7 treys per game this year, ranking in the 91st percentile out of all players in the league. Duncan Robinson has averaged 29.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.0 more than he's averaged over the course of the year. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. Over the last 24 games when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SGs have notched 18.4 points per game (6th-most in the league) vs. the 76ers, making this a favorable matchup for offensive performance. Out of all players in the league, Duncan Robinson registers in the 90th percentile for foul-shot proficiency with an outstanding 89.6% rate this year.

Guerschon Yabusele has converted 66.2% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 13.3% more than he's made over the course of the year while playing at home. The faceoff with Kel'el Ware slots into the 97th percentile with opposing starting Cs making a colossal 45.2% of their three-pointers this year. Guerschon Yabusele has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 25.1% more than he's put through the net overall this year. When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the 76ers's terrific 22.8 foul shot attempts per game rates 4th-best in the league over the last 25 games. Guerschon Yabusele will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city usually raises stat production across the board.