Final Apr 25
BOS 93 -5.5 o200.0
ORL 95 5.5 u200.0
Final Apr 25
IND 101 4.5 o229.0
MIL 117 -4.5 u229.0
Final Apr 25
LAL 104 4.0 o207.5
MIN 116 -4.0 u207.5
Boston 2nd EASTERN CONFERENCE61-21
Miami 10th EASTERN CONFERENCE37-45

Boston @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jaime Jaquez Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Under
-130
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Under
-130
Projection Rating

Relative to last year's 9.6 clip, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s shots have declined this year to 7.0 per game. In comparison to last year's 28.3 rate, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s playing time has been reduced this year to 21.4 minutes per game. The most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from squaring off against the most lethargic pace offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Boston Celtics). Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the home team with a mere 8.4 offensive boards per game this year.

Jaime Jaquez

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 4.1
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
4.1

Relative to last year's 9.6 clip, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s shots have declined this year to 7.0 per game. In comparison to last year's 28.3 rate, Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s playing time has been reduced this year to 21.4 minutes per game. The most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from squaring off against the most lethargic pace offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Boston Celtics). Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the home team with a mere 8.4 offensive boards per game this year.

Davion Mitchell Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Mitchell
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
3.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.2
Best Odds
Over
-105

Davion Mitchell has converted 51.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 8.5% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season. Davion Mitchell has successfully made 52.8% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 9.7% higher than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this season. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. The matchup against the Celtics is a positive one for three-pointers; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (3.0). Davion Mitchell stands to get a boost in production for all stats in light of holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Davion Mitchell

Prop: 3.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.2
Prop:
3.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.2

Davion Mitchell has converted 51.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 8.5% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season. Davion Mitchell has successfully made 52.8% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 9.7% higher than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this season. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. The matchup against the Celtics is a positive one for three-pointers; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (3.0). Davion Mitchell stands to get a boost in production for all stats in light of holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Kel'el Ware Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Ware
center C • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
9
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
9
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the league, Kel'el Ware rates in the 82nd percentile for shooting efficiency with a great 51.6% rate this year. Kel'el Ware has successfully made 40.2% of his treys while playing at home this year, placing him in the 81st percentile out of all players in the NBA. Kel'el Ware has tallied 29.2 minutes per game over the last 10 games at home, 6.3 more than he's tallied in all games this year at home. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. Kel'el Ware ought to see a rise in output in all stat categories on account of controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Kel'el Ware

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9

Out of all players in the league, Kel'el Ware rates in the 82nd percentile for shooting efficiency with a great 51.6% rate this year. Kel'el Ware has successfully made 40.2% of his treys while playing at home this year, placing him in the 81st percentile out of all players in the NBA. Kel'el Ware has tallied 29.2 minutes per game over the last 10 games at home, 6.3 more than he's tallied in all games this year at home. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. Kel'el Ware ought to see a rise in output in all stat categories on account of controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.2
Best Odds
Under
-110

The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Derrick White will likely suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories due to playing on the visting team in this game.

Derrick White

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.2
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.2

The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Derrick White will likely suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories due to playing on the visting team in this game.

Sam Hauser Points Scored Props • Boston

S. Hauser
power forward PF • Boston
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Sam Hauser has attempted 7.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 12.2 shot attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making this a good matchup. The rate of 3-pointers made against Andrew Wiggins has been remarkably high (53.1%) when he is at home and matched up against fellow starting SFs this year (100th percentile). The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists). Compared to last season's 90.9% mark, Sam Hauser's free-throw performance has risen this season to 100.0%.

Sam Hauser

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.2
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.2

Sam Hauser has attempted 7.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 12.2 shot attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making this a good matchup. The rate of 3-pointers made against Andrew Wiggins has been remarkably high (53.1%) when he is at home and matched up against fellow starting SFs this year (100th percentile). The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists). Compared to last season's 90.9% mark, Sam Hauser's free-throw performance has risen this season to 100.0%.

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.5
Best Odds
Under
-111
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
20.5
Best Odds
Under
-111
Projection Rating

Jaylen Brown has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the league (91st percentile). The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Jaylen Brown figures to see a decline in productivity in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this contest.

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.5
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.5

Jaylen Brown has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the league (91st percentile). The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Jaylen Brown figures to see a decline in productivity in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this contest.

Luke Kornet Points Scored Props • Boston

L. Kornet
center C • Boston
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
5.7
Best Odds
Under
-125
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
5.7
Best Odds
Under
-125
Projection Rating

Compared to last season's 100.0% mark, Luke Kornet's three-point proficiency has declined this season to 0.0%. Luke Kornet has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 0.9 higher than he's committed in all games this season on the road. The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat).

Luke Kornet

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 5.7
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
5.7

Compared to last season's 100.0% mark, Luke Kornet's three-point proficiency has declined this season to 0.0%. Luke Kornet has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 0.9 higher than he's committed in all games this season on the road. The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat).

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
power forward PF • Boston
Prop
31.5
Points Scored
Projection
28.4
Best Odds
Under
-118

Jayson Tatum has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged overall this year. The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Jayson Tatum ought to suffer a drop-off in efficiency across the board considering being on the road in this contest.

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 31.5 Points Scored
Projection: 28.4
Prop:
31.5 Points Scored
Projection:
28.4

Jayson Tatum has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged overall this year. The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Jayson Tatum ought to suffer a drop-off in efficiency across the board considering being on the road in this contest.

Payton Pritchard Points Scored Props • Boston

P. Pritchard
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
14.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Payton Pritchard will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road tends to lower player production across the board.

Payton Pritchard

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.1
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.1

The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). Payton Pritchard will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road tends to lower player production across the board.

Kristaps Porziņģis Points Scored Props • Boston

K. Porziņģis
center C • Boston
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.6
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
16.6
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

Kristaps Porzingis has accumulated 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated overall this season on the road. The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Kel'el Ware has been quite low this year (2.6 foul shot attempts per game: 7th percentile).

Kristaps Porziņģis

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.6
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.6

Kristaps Porzingis has accumulated 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated overall this season on the road. The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Kel'el Ware has been quite low this year (2.6 foul shot attempts per game: 7th percentile).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
17
Best Odds
Under
-104

This year, opposing starting PFs have scored 14.5 points per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, marking this as a challenging matchup for offensive production. The most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from squaring off against the most lethargic pace offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Boston Celtics). Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the home team with a mere 8.4 offensive boards per game this year. The matchup vs. Boston is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 3.1 foul shots per game this year when the Boston Celtics are away from home (8th-least in the league).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17

This year, opposing starting PFs have scored 14.5 points per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, marking this as a challenging matchup for offensive production. The most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from squaring off against the most lethargic pace offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Boston Celtics). Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the home team with a mere 8.4 offensive boards per game this year. The matchup vs. Boston is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 3.1 foul shots per game this year when the Boston Celtics are away from home (8th-least in the league).

Al Horford Points Scored Props • Boston

A. Horford
center C • Boston
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.1
Best Odds
Under
-110

The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). The matchup vs. the Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the league). Al Horford will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers player performance for all stats.

Al Horford

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.1
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.1

The Boston Celtics have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team. The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat). The matchup vs. the Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the league). Al Horford will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers player performance for all stats.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
22.8
Best Odds
Over
-125

In comparison to last year's 8.1 rate, Tyler Herro's three-point attempts have surged this year to 9.5 per game. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 35.6 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 96th percentile. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. The matchup against the Celtics is a positive one for three-pointers; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (3.0). Tyler Herro has successfully made a terrific 3.6 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit more than his 2.3 mark last year.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 22.8
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
22.8

In comparison to last year's 8.1 rate, Tyler Herro's three-point attempts have surged this year to 9.5 per game. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 35.6 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 96th percentile. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. The matchup against the Celtics is a positive one for three-pointers; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (3.0). Tyler Herro has successfully made a terrific 3.6 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit more than his 2.3 mark last year.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.1
Best Odds
Over
-115

Among all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson places in the 82nd percentile for 3-point performance with an outstanding 38.1% rate this year. Duncan Robinson has attempted 8.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's attempted overall this year. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. Duncan Robinson will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium generally increases player performance for all stats.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.1
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.1

Among all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson places in the 82nd percentile for 3-point performance with an outstanding 38.1% rate this year. Duncan Robinson has attempted 8.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's attempted overall this year. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. Duncan Robinson will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium generally increases player performance for all stats.

Andrew Wiggins Points Scored Props • Miami

A. Wiggins
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.4
Best Odds
Over
-130

Andrew Wiggins has attempted 13.9 shots per game this year, putting him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league. Compared to last year's 3.6 clip, Andrew Wiggins's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this year to 5.8 per game. Andrew Wiggins has played 30.3 minutes per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 81st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. Andrew Wiggins has attempted 6.3 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.9 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.

Andrew Wiggins

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.4
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.4

Andrew Wiggins has attempted 13.9 shots per game this year, putting him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league. Compared to last year's 3.6 clip, Andrew Wiggins's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this year to 5.8 per game. Andrew Wiggins has played 30.3 minutes per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 81st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The Heat have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league as the home team this year in regard to threes. Andrew Wiggins has attempted 6.3 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.9 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.

Jrue Holiday Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Holiday
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.9
Best Odds
Over
-125

Out of all players in the league, Jrue Holiday ranks in the 79th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 30.1 minutes per game when playing on the road this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists). Jrue Holiday has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games, 11.9% more than he's sunk in all games this season. Over the last 5 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 5.8 free throws per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Heat, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

Jrue Holiday

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.9
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.9

Out of all players in the league, Jrue Holiday ranks in the 79th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 30.1 minutes per game when playing on the road this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists). Jrue Holiday has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games, 11.9% more than he's sunk in all games this season. Over the last 5 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 5.8 free throws per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Heat, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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