ATL 5.0 o217.0
ORL -5.0 u217.0
MEM 7.0 o229.0
GS -7.0 u229.0
Denver 4th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32
Sacramento 9th WESTERN CONFERENCE40-42

Denver @ Sacramento picks

Golden 1 Center

DEN vs SAC Picks

NBA Picks
3-Pointers Made
Domantas Sabonis logo Domantas Sabonis o0.5 3-Pointers Made (+100)
Best Odds
o0.5 +100 BetMGM
Pick made: 5 days ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o0.5  +100
 -
o0.5  -105
o0.5  -128
o0.5  -115

Sabonis doesn’t let it fly from long range often – averaging only 0.9 3-pointers on 2.2 3FGAs this season – but he’s hit a triple in each of his two matchups with the Nuggets this year, going a collective 2 for 7 from distance. Sabonis shoots almost 42% from 3-point range inside Golden 1 Center and will be playing in his first home game since March 27. Player projections for Sabonis all sit above the 0.5 total, ranging from 0.6 to 0.9. My number comes out just shy of 0.8 makes from distance for the Kings’ 6-foot-10 star which should have the Over 0.5 makes at -104 rather than paying +110.

Points Scored
K. Ellis o10.5 Points Scored
Projection 13.4 (Over)
Best Odds
o10.5 -110 betmgm
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
10.5 -110
10.5 -118
10.5 -127
10.5 -105
10.5 -128
10.5 -106
10.5 -125
10.5 -105
10.5 -125
10.5 -106

Keon Ellis has sunk 56.2% of his field goal attempts over the last 15 games at home, 7.0% more than he's put through the net in all games this season when playing at home. Among all players in the NBA, Keon Ellis slots into the 93rd percentile for three-point performance at home with an exceptional 47.5% rate this year. Keon Ellis has averaged 32.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 8.4 more than he's averaged over the course of the season at home. The Kings rank as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while at home. The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a spike in plays today from competing against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets).

Points Scored
T. Lyles o10.5 Points Scored
Projection 12.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o10.5 +102 fanduel
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
10.5 -105
10.5 -130
10.5 -118
10.5 -118
10.5 -110
10.5 -120
10.5 +102
10.5 -130

Trey Lyles has been on the court for 26.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.2 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The Kings rank as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while at home. The matchup against Denver is a good one for threes; when the Denver Nuggets are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 5th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (44.8%). The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a spike in plays today from competing against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). Trey Lyles has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games at home, 29.2% higher than he's converted overall this season while playing at home.

Total Rebounds
T. Lyles o5.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 8.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 -145 betmgm
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
5.5 -145
5.5 +110
5.5 -154
5.5 +112
5.5 -154
5.5 +120
5.5 -146
5.5 +114

Trey Lyles has compiled 2.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 1.1 higher than he's compiled in all games this season at home. Trey Lyles has been on the court for 26.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.2 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a spike in plays today from competing against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). Trey Lyles should see a spike in efficiency in all stat categories considering having the home court advantage in this contest.

3-Pointers Made
K. Ellis o2.5 3-Pointers Made
Projection 2.8 (Over)
Best Odds
o2.5 +158 fanduel
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
2.5 +150
2.5 -185
2.5 +140
2.5 -190
2.5 +133
2.5 -180
2.5 +133
2.5 -185
2.5 +135
2.5 -175
2.5 +158
2.5 -205

Among all players in the NBA, Keon Ellis slots into the 93rd percentile for three-point performance at home with an exceptional 47.5% rate this year. Keon Ellis has averaged 32.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 8.4 more than he's averaged over the course of the season at home. With respect to threes, the Kings's outstanding 40.3% rate of converted threes while at home places 6th-highest in the league over the last 10 games. The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a spike in plays today from competing against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). Keon Ellis will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage usually boosts player production for all stats.

Points Scored
J. Pickett o7.5 Points Scored
Projection 9.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -105 betmgm
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
7.5 -105
7.5 -125
7.5 -120
7.5 -114
7.5 -120
7.5 -110
7.5 -125
7.5 -106

Jalen Pickett has successfully made 1.6 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.7 more than he's converted overall this season without the home court advantage. Among all players in the NBA, Jalen Pickett comes in at the 24th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a mere 1.0 fouls per game on the road this year. The 5th-quickest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 7th-best in in the league when playing away from home with 12.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. Compared to last season's 75.0% clip, Jalen Pickett's foul-shot effectiveness has surged this season to 87.5%.

Total Rebounds
Z. LaVine o3.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 4.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o3.5 +100 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 -105
3.5 -130
3.5 +100
3.5 -132
3.5 -118
3.5 -118
3.5 -115
3.5 -115
3.5 -118
3.5 -108

Zach LaVine has posted 4.1 defensive rebounds per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 82nd percentile. Zach LaVine has been on the court for 35.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 96th percentile. The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a spike in plays today from competing against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). Zach LaVine will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home usually improves player production for all stats.

3-Pointers Made
J. Pickett o1.5 3-Pointers Made
Projection 1.8 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 +150 draftkings
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
1.5 +150
1.5 -185
1.5 +140
1.5 -190
1.5 +139
1.5 -192
1.5 +150
1.5 -195
1.5 +132
1.5 -178

Jalen Pickett has successfully made 1.6 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.7 more than he's converted overall this season without the home court advantage. Among all players in the NBA, Jalen Pickett comes in at the 24th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a mere 1.0 fouls per game on the road this year. The 5th-quickest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 7th-best in in the league when playing away from home with 12.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

Points Scored
N. Jokic u31.5 Points Scored
Projection 29.3 (Under)
Best Odds
u31.5 -104 fanduel
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
31.5 -110
31.5 -120
31.5 -109
31.5 -125
31.5 -110
31.5 -120
31.5 -122
31.5 -104

In terms of shot attempts from downtown, the least aggressive offense in the league this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The matchup vs. Domantas Sabonis is a tough one; he has given up a measly 11.8 points per game while at home when matched up against other starting Cs this year (10th percentile). The Kings have played at the 5th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 25 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Nuggets. The matchup against Domantas Sabonis is a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; when Sabonis is playing at home and squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a lowly 2.5 foul shots per game (23rd percentile). Nikola Jokic will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases player performance across the board.

Total Rebounds
K. Ellis o3.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 4 (Over)
Best Odds
o3.5 +130 betmgm
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 +130
3.5 -175
3.5 +125
3.5 -167
3.5 +112
3.5 -154
3.5 +110
3.5 -140
3.5 +124
3.5 -160

Keon Ellis has put up 3.4 defensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.4 more than he's put up overall this year at home. Keon Ellis has averaged 32.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 8.4 more than he's averaged over the course of the season at home. The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a spike in plays today from competing against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). Keon Ellis will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage usually boosts player production for all stats.

Total Rebounds
K. Murray o4.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 6.3 (Over)
Best Odds
o4.5 -143 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 5 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
4.5 -155
4.5 +120
4.5 -143
4.5 +108
4.5 -154
4.5 +112
4.5 -145
4.5 +114
5.5 +128
5.5 -172

Keegan Murray has posted 7.2 rebounds per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- one of the best in the league by this standard. Among all players in the league, Keegan Murray places in the 94th percentile for playing time, compiling a whopping 34.5 minutes per game this year. The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a spike in plays today from competing against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). Keegan Murray will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium usually improves player performance in all facets of the game.

DEN vs SAC Consensus Picks

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Total

70% picking Denver vs Sacramento to go Over

70%
30%

Total PicksDEN 283, SAC 123

Total
Over
Under

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