Miami @ New Orleans picks
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In some ways, Bam Adebayo’s season can be viewed in two halves. He got off to a slow start and has had to adjust to both Jimmy Butler’s departure and Kel’el Ware’s arrival in the starting five, but there have been positive signs for the Miami Heat lately, with Adebayo finding his best form and averaging 20+ points since the start of March. And Erik Spoelstra has to like what he’s seen over the past few weeks from the Heat. This recent stretch bodes well as they visit a New Orleans team missing Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Herb Jones, among others, and the Heat should score freely here. Adebayo poured in 23 points against the Pelicans in early January, and I’m backing him for another efficient night.
In terms of offense, the New Orleans Pelicans's feeble 102.3 points per game as the home team rates weakest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Pelicans will likely see a decline in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the league over the last 25 games (the Miami Heat). The matchup against Miami may be a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted just 1.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Miami Heat are on the road (4th-least in the league).
Tyler Herro has attempted 8.8 treys per game this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among all players in the NBA. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 35.4 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 96th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. In regard to three-point shots, the Heat's impressive 44.1% rate of sunk threes comes in as the most in the league over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. New Orleans is a positive one for 3-point attempts; when the New Orleans Pelicans are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled the 2nd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (7.5). The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Miami Heat.
Bam Adebayo has put up 7.2 defensive boards per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league in this category: 98th percentile. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo rates in the 94th percentile for playing time, compiling a whopping 34.5 minutes per game this year. The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Miami Heat.
Antonio Reeves has successfully made 53.4% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 15.1% more than he's converted overall this season. Antonio Reeves has attempted 7.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 4.7 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. Antonio Reeves has been on the court for 32.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 18.0 higher than he's been on the court for overall this year. Antonio Reeves has tallied 0.8 personal fouls per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 15th percentile -- among the league's least foul-prone. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a positive one for 3-point attempts; the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3).
Andrew Wiggins has averaged 1.6 offensive rebounds per game this year on the road, placing him among the league's hottest by this standard in recent games: 83rd percentile. Andrew Wiggins has been on the court for 30.6 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league. The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Miami Heat.
Tyler Herro has posted 4.8 defensive boards per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this metric: 89th percentile. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 35.4 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 96th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Miami Heat.
MIA vs NO Consensus Picks
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63% picking New Orleans
Total Picks MIA 195, NO 326