LA @ Sacramento picks
Golden 1 Center
LAC vs SAC Picks
NBA Picks
The LA Clippers are riding a five-game winning streak and look for a season series sweep over the Sacramento Kings on Friday. A loss could drop LA from the top six seeds and force the Clips into the NBA Play-In tourney. LA easily covered the first two meetings but struggled against this Sacramento lineup featuring Zach LaVine. Sacramento recorded two massive away upsets in their last five and is trying to hold off Dallas for the home court in their likely play-in contest. I like the Kings SU, but I'll take the points.
The Kings have gone Over in three of their last four and have hit that mark in 44 of 80 games this season. Season-long trends favor a high-scoring game. The Clippers are 25-21-1 to the Over as favorites and 12-7 to the Over as road favorites. The Kings have hit the Over in nine of 14 against Pacific Division opponents and in seven of nine as the home underdog. The Kings can finish no better than the No. 9 seed, but they’ll still be motivated to win this one to keep that seed and avoid falling to No. 10. Winning one against the Clippers after dropping three straight to them in the season series should add some extra incentive. The Clippers are in the thick of the Western Conference playoff hunt, and each win is vital. I expect both teams to play their best basketball tonight, and that should mean plenty of scoring in a matchup with no shortage of star power.
Keegan Murray u13.5 Points Scored (-122)
Murray is listed as questionable with a back injury that has sidelined him the last three games. That said, his player props are available and could be ripe for betting the Under given that he could be limited in his return after missing the last week. Even before the injury, Murray had scored fewer than 13.5 points in six of his previous nine games and he's averaging 12.5 ppg on the season. He also has a tough matchup tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers who play at a slower pace and rank third in the league in defensive rating.
Kris Dunn has posted 3.1 assists per game this year on the road, ranking him among the NBA's best by this standard over this stretch: 78th percentile.
Keon Ellis has made 55.0% of his field goals over the last 15 games at home, 5.6% higher than he's made over the course of the year while at home. Keon Ellis has successfully made 3.4 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.4 more than he's made from downtown in all games this season when playing at home. Keon Ellis has been on the court for 34.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games at home, 11.0 more than he's been on the court for overall this season at home. The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a positive one for field goals; when the Clippers are the visiting squad, opposing starting PGs have compiled the 7th-highest FG% in the NBA this year (45.6%). Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 8th-best in in the NBA with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Keegan Murray has totaled 7.2 rebounds per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile -- near the top of the league by this standard. Keegan Murray has played 34.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 94th percentile. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 8th-best in in the NBA with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games. Keegan Murray ought to see a rise in performance in all stat categories on account of possessing the home court advantage in this contest.
Norman Powell has compiled a whopping 22.1 points per game this year, significantly more than his 13.8 points per game last year. Norman Powell has successfully made a terrific 3.0 three-point shots per game this year, a significant increase from his 2.2 mark last year. Among all players in the league, Norman Powell lands in the 88th percentile for playing time, posting a massive 32.4 minutes per game this year. The LA Clippers have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. Sacramento is a strong one for 3-point attempts; when the Kings are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have tallied the 2nd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.1).
Kris Dunn has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.
This year when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged 30.6% on threes (9th-lowest in the league) vs. the Kings, labeling this as a tough matchup. The 6th-slowest pace team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Clippers. The Clippers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 5th-slowest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Sacramento Kings). Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the LA Clippers grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA with just 9.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. James Harden is expected to see a decline in efficiency in all stat categories in light of playing away from home in this matchup.
LAC vs SAC Consensus Picks
View all Consensus Picks70% picking L.A. Clippers vs Sacramento to go Over
Total PicksLAC 267, SAC 116