Golden State @ Houston picks

Houston’s greatest strength is its ability to limit looks from deep. The Rockets give up only 36.4 3-point attempts per game, No. 6 in the NBA. That is impressive enough, but the shocking stat is that Houston allows opponents to make just 32.2% of their threes, leading the NBA. Tough break, Buddy Hield. The sharpshooter is making 3.3 threes per game this season and just 1.8 two-pointers. He has one tool in his belt this year, and that is the exact tool that the Rockets stymie.

In the last month, Golden State’s offensive rating has plummeted to No. 27. That drop-off has impacted even Steph Curry. In the last month, he has fallen short of this rather modest prop in seven of 11 games. The Warriors simply do not have enough offensive options to keep the defensive focus off their best player. And the Rockets have a bounty of perimeter defenders to make Curry’s life miserable in this NBA Cup quarterfinal.

Steph Curry has been content to share the touches in a Golden State rotation that regularly goes 11 deep, with his workload dipping to 30.5 mpg, but this is a win-or-go-home scenario with a chance to reach the semifinals in Vegas. That feels like a recipe for more of a Game 7 minutes load and 20+ shots. It doesn’t take much to get Steph going, and he could cruise to this Over if early 3-pointers drop in.

This bet is not for the faint of heart, as trying to project the minutes and rotations for Steve Kerr has been a literal nightmare this season. What makes this bet stand out is that the edge lies with Hield, even with him projected for only 18 minutes, compared to his season average of 23 minutes. Hield typically gets his assists when opposing teams successfully defend him coming off a screen for a three-point shot, forcing him to dump the ball to the screener for a layup or dunk. The Houston Rockets' strong defensive unit could play right into these potential assists, as they won’t allow Hield any airspace to take his jumper. Hield is projected for 1.9 assists on Wednesday, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 at -120.