Final Apr 25
BOS 93 -5.5 o200.0
ORL 95 5.5 u200.0
Final Apr 25
IND 101 4.5 o229.0
MIL 117 -4.5 u229.0
Final Apr 25
LAL 104 4.0 o207.5
MIN 116 -4.0 u207.5
Denver 4th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32
Sacramento 9th WESTERN CONFERENCE40-42

Denver @ Sacramento picks

Golden 1 Center

DEN vs SAC Picks

NBA Picks
Total Assists
D. McDermott u0.5 Total Assists
Projection 0.4 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +140 bet365
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
0.5 -170
0.5 +140
0.5 -185
0.5 +135
0.5 -175
0.5 +126

Doug McDermott has totaled just 0.2 assists per game this year, quite a bit less than his 1.0 assists per game last year. Doug McDermott has tallied just 8.2 minutes per game this season, significantly lower than his 13.1 minutes per game last season. The 6th-slowest pace home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Sacramento Kings. The Sacramento Kings check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Points Scored
J. Strawther o8.5 Points Scored
Projection 11.4 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -114 fanduel
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
8.5 -115
8.5 -115
8.5 -114
8.5 -120
8.5 -125
8.5 -105
8.5 -114
8.5 -106

Julian Strawther has sunk 59.6% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 7.0% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year while playing away from home. With respect to scoring, the Nuggets's impressive 120.7 points per game settles in as the 3rd-strongest in the league over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Kings is a good one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SGs this year (18.1). The 2nd-most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets. Julian Strawther has successfully made 93.5% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games, 10.5% more than he's made in all games this season.

Points Scored
A. Gordon o13.5 Points Scored
Projection 15.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o13.5 -104 fanduel
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
13.5 -120
13.5 -110
13.5 -108
13.5 -122
13.5 -128
13.5 -106
13.5 -115
13.5 -115
13.5 -104
13.5 -118

Aaron Gordon has sunk 51.7% of his shot attempts from the field this year, placing him in the 79th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Aaron Gordon has made 42.5% of his 3-point attempts when playing on the road this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among all players in the NBA. With respect to scoring, the Nuggets's impressive 120.7 points per game settles in as the 3rd-strongest in the league over the last 20 games. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 52.6% on shots from the field (6th-best in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, marking this as a positive matchup. The 2nd-most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets.

Total Assists
D. Sabonis o5.5 Total Assists
Projection 6.9 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 -105 bet365
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
5.5 -105
5.5 -125
5.5 -130
5.5 -105
5.5 -112
5.5 -120
5.5 -143
5.5 +104
5.5 -135
5.5 +105
5.5 -114
5.5 -106

Domantas Sabonis has posted 6.0 assists per game this year at home, ranking him among the hottest players in the league in this category in recent games: 94th percentile. Among all players in the NBA, Domantas Sabonis registers in the 93rd percentile for playing time, registering a whopping 34.8 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The Kings are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nuggets). Domantas Sabonis will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court generally improves player performance across the board.

Total Assists
N. Jokić o7.5 Total Assists
Projection 9.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -112 fanduel
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
7.5 -120
7.5 -110
7.5 -140
7.5 +105
7.5 -137
7.5 +100
7.5 -135
7.5 +105
7.5 -112
7.5 -108

Nikola Jokic has totaled a whopping 9.8 assists per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 8.9 assists per game last year. Out of all players in the league, Nikola Jokic lands in the 100th percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 37.3 minutes per game this year. The 2nd-most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets.

Points Scored
D. McDermott u7.5 Points Scored
Projection 6 (Under)
Best Odds
u7.5 -130 fanduel
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
6.5 -115
6.5 -120
6.5 -114
6.5 -120
6.5 -115
6.5 -115
7.5 +106
7.5 -130

Doug McDermott has tallied just 8.2 minutes per game this season, significantly lower than his 13.1 minutes per game last season. The 6th-slowest pace home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Sacramento Kings. The Sacramento Kings check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Out of all players in the league, Doug McDermott lands in the 6th percentile for getting to the foul line, posting a measly 0.3 foul shots per game this year. This year, opposing starting PFs have attempted 2.6 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

Total Rebounds
C. Braun o4.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 5.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o4.5 +125 betmgm
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
4.5 +125
4.5 -165
4.5 +112
4.5 -154
4.5 +105
4.5 -135
4.5 +112
4.5 -138

Christian Braun has compiled 3.8 defensive rebounds per game this year on the road, ranking him among the NBA's leaders by this metric in recent days: 76th percentile. Christian Braun has tallied 34.7 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 92nd percentile. The 2nd-most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets.

Total Assists
K. Murray o1.5 Total Assists
Projection 1.7 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 +155 bet365
Projection updated: 130 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
1.5 +155
1.5 -190
1.5 +105
1.5 -140
1.5 +108
1.5 -147

Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray lands in the 96th percentile for playing time, compiling a whopping 35.9 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. The Kings are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nuggets). Keegan Murray is expected to see an increase in performance for all stats due to holding the home court advantage in this contest.

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