Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 4, 2026
PHI
@
NY
Mon, May 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Josh Hart o4.5 Total Assists (+100)
The Sixers could throw Joel Embiid on Josh Hart, as to keep him around the key in Game 1. New York will try to draw Embiid out and Hart will be a conduit for spot-up shooters or cutters to the rim. He dished out five or more assists in the first three games against Atlanta and finished the series averaging 4.3 assists on 5.5 potential dimes. In three regular season matchups with Philadelphia, Hart enjoyed some of his best passing performances. He recorded six, seven, and nine helpers in those outings. His projections for Game 1 bounce between 4.6 and 5.4 assists with my number at five dimes tonight.
Paul George o14.5 Points Scored (-120)
The market continues to disrespect Playoff P, and if that’s the case, we’re going to keep backing the over on Paul George’s points prop. The total is sitting at 14.5 with -120 juice on the over, but I make it closer to -215 for George to clear this number. While these were elimination games, George has played 40+ minutes in each of his last three playoff outings. The Sixers are essentially relying on six players to carry the full workload. I don’t even need 40 minutes here—if he’s playing in the high 30s, a 14.5-point line is simply too low. George doesn’t need to create much on his own either. On paper, he draws a tough defender in OG Anunoby, but Anunoby will likely be more focused on helping against Joel Embiid than locking in as George’s primary defender. If George logs heavy minutes, gets up around 13 shots, and plays off the gravity of Embiid and Maxey, that should be more than enough to clear this number.
MIN
@
SA
Mon, May 4 • 9:30 PM ET
De'Aaron Fox o17.5 Points Scored (-110)
Is there a bigger mismatch left in these NBA Playoffs than Mike Conley trying to guard the speed of De’Aaron Fox? I really don’t think so. The Timberwolves do have the frontcourt defense to bother Victor Wembanyama, with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels providing help, but what they lack is point-of-attack defense against Fox. During the regular season, Fox’s points prop was always a strong look in competitive games, as his minutes would otherwise dip below 30. In the first round of the playoffs, he averaged 35.4 minutes per game, never playing fewer than 34 minutes—even with the Spurs winning all four games by double digits. Now, in the Western Conference Semifinals, there’s no reason to expect any kind of minutes limitation. If Fox is playing 35+ minutes, this number is simply too low—I make it closer to -165.
Rudy Gobert u10.5 Total Rebounds (+102)
Victor Wembanyama can camp out in the paint on defense when Gobert is in the game, stifling any Minnesota drives. Without their two best shooters, the Timberwolves need some space inside. Expect more five-out lineups from Minnesota with Julius Randle the primary defender on Wembanyama.
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