NBA Picks

The matchup vs. Charlotte is a good one for scoring; when the Hornets are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have totaled the most buckets per game in the league this year (8.7).. The Detroit Pistons check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

The Hornets rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games as the home team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Okongwu finished with just five boards versus the Cavs last night but with both teams' shooting cooling off and Cleveland sitting center Jarrett Allen, Okongwu will clean the glass in a must-win game for the Hawks. He’s averaged 7.5 rebounds on 12.8 rebounding chances over the past 23 games and grabbed eight or more rebounds in three of his last five games (two games with seven). Player projections range from 8.0 to 10+ boards tonight.

The matchup vs. Atlanta is a strong one for threes; when the Atlanta Hawks are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have compiled the highest three rate in the league this year (60.1%).. The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA this year, which should boost opportunities for the Cleveland Cavaliers.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Cavaliers rank 8th-best in the league as the away team with 12.2 offensive boards per game this year.

The Pacers are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Pacers aren’t a team surviving on effort alone. The Pacers can score, and they do it efficiently. In a game where Philadelphia is allowing 118.7 points per game, and Indiana is giving up 121.9, stops are going to be hard to find.

In terms of shooting, the 76ers's unimpressive 46.3% field goal rate ranks 9th-weakest in the NBA this year.

Bridges shot well before opting not to (he dished out six assists), finishing 4 for 4 with two triples and 10 points last night. He’s hitting at a 53% clip over his last eight outings, putting up 13 or more points in six of those contests. Bridges has played well versus Toronto, scoring 11, 14, 15, and 30 points in four meetings this season. Tonight’s projections paint the same picture they did yesterday, with Bridges forecasted for at least 14 points.

New York is 9-1-0 against the spread against the Raptors in the last 10 meetings. 

The formula has been brutally simple: in every game, New York has outscored them from 3-point range and beaten Toronto up on the glass, winning the rebounding battle each time.

Boston sports one of the best defenses in the Association. The Celtics allow the fewest points per game (107) and own the fourth-best defensive rating (111.8). The C’s also sport the slowest pace, and with a 29-51 mark, they’ve hit the Under at a higher percentage than any other team (63.8%).

New Orleans will be without Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson and Yves Missi, while key scorer Saddiq Bey is listed as questionable. Rookies Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen will have to shoulder the load offensively, and my money’s on Boston’s world-class defense locking down a road team led by a pair of rookies.

The Boston Celtics will likely see an increase in possessions today from being pitted against the 5th-fastest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).. The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).. The matchup against New Orleans may be a good one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 3.3 free throws per game over the last 19 games when the Pelicans are the visiting squad (8th-most in the league).

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA as the home team this year.

Victor Wembanyama has compiled 31.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 more than he's compiled over the course of the year.. The Spurs are expected to see a rise in plays today from sharing the court with the 4th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA this year (the Dallas Mavericks).. The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Chicago is 23rd in defensive rating over the last 10 contests, allowing more than 127 points per game in that span. More than 70 of those points are coming from opposing guards. Chicago is down to eight healthy bodies and many of those guys are D-League callups. On top of that lack of talent, the Bulls are playing the second of back-to-back games after winning in Washington Thursday. Before a recent lull in offensive activity, Suggs was averaging around 14 points per outing. His player projections for Friday expect one better from the Gonzaga product, with his scoring forecast ranging from 15.2 to 16.1 points.

I like Banchero Over 8.5 Rebounds with projections flirting with nine rebounds and Chicago playing the second night of back-to-back games and losing Guerschon Yabusele to an injury last night. The Bulls are extremely shorthanded inside and Paolo is averaging 8.3 rebounds on 14.3 rebound chances since the All-Star break. 

The matchup against the Thunder is a hard one for three-pointers; the other team's starting SFs have put up the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (25.5%).. The Thunder have played at the 10th-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which should decrease opportunities for the Nuggets.. The Denver Nuggets check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).. Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Thunder, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

The Nuggets check in as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.. The 9th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Denver Nuggets.

The Houston Rockets have been the least aggressive offense in the league while at home this year when it comes to three-point attempts.. The Rockets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.. Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 2.2 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Timberwolves, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

The Rockets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.

The Warriors have taken four of five in this head-to-head, and aside from the last meeting, have won by at least 26 points in the other three wins.

But these aren't the same Warriors. And while they should win, they're really just trying to get Steph Curry up to full speed before the play-in. That's no stress, and definitely not a blowout.

The Portland Trail Blazers have compiled a 22-17 record at home in 2025-26, and they’ve won five of their last six games at the Moda Center. Also, Portland just ended a four-game losing streak against the Los Angeles Clippers last month, beating them 114-104 on the road. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is coming off an 18-point defeat to the OKC Thunder, and they’re just 19-21 away from the Intuit Dome.

The LA Clippers have played at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the league this year.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 4thworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.

The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The Suns have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to fewer plays for the Lakers.. The Lakers have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

The Suns have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games.. The Suns have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The Lakers have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Suns.