NBA Picks

James Harden is averaging 19.3 points over 11 games with the Cavaliers, and has cashed the Over in points in two of his last four.

On the surface, this bet may not look appealing against a strong Orlando Magic defense. However, when you dig into the matchups and likely game script, the 7.5 line at plus money begins to stand out. Orlando’s defensive scheme is built around clogging the lane and forcing opponents to beat them from the perimeter. That approach plays directly into the strengths of someone like James Harden, who is one of the best in the NBA at getting into the paint, manipulating the defense, and firing skip passes to open shooters. The lineup construction in this game also works in Harden’s favor. Sam Merrill and Dean Wade are both expected to start, and they’re classic catch-and-shoot players. They aren’t looking to create their own shots in isolation—their role is to space the floor, receive passes from Harden, and convert those opportunities into assists. I price the Over at -155.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games playing at home.. Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 3rd-best in in the league while at home with 13.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games playing at home.. Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 3rd-best in in the league while at home with 13.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

The Jazz rank as the 10th-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.. This year, the other team's starting PGs have tallied 4.8 3-point attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks, making this a challenging matchup.. The 8th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Utah Jazz.. The New York Knicks have played at the 5th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Jazz.

This year when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 7.3 3-point attempts per game (2nd-highest in the league) against the Utah Jazz, making this a good matchup.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks rank 5th-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.. The matchup vs. Utah is a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a colossal 4.2 free throws per game this year when the Jazz have the home court advantage (4th-most in the NBA).

The 24.5-point line for Kevin Durant is simply too low when you look at the matchup against the Denver Nuggets. I price this prop closer to -230, which creates a significant edge and makes it my favorite bet on the board for Wednesday. Aaron Gordon is back in the lineup for Denver and will likely draw the primary assignment on Durant. While Gordon is a strong, physical defender who excels in chest-to-chest situations, he’s not the type of defender who can truly bother Durant in isolation on the perimeter or disrupt his high release point. On top of that, Nikola Jokić typically plays drop coverage, which should leave Durant with plenty of space to operate in the mid-range—an area where he’s essentially automatic. If Durant is also able to force switches, the rest of Denver’s defenders become clear mismatches, creating even more scoring opportunities for him.

Denver is just 14-16 ATS at home this season, and with star point guard Jamal Murray listed as a game-time decision, I'll take the points with the Rockets on Wednesday night.

As it relates to offense, the Sacramento Kings's feeble 110.7 points per game ranks 2nd-fewest in the NBA this year.. The matchup against the Charlotte Hornets is a tough one for shots from the field; the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled the least field goal attempts per game in the league this year (11.3).. The Hornets have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which should decrease plays for the Kings.. The matchup vs. the Charlotte Hornets is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.9 foul shots per game this year (3rd-least in the league).

The Hornets have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which should decrease plays for the Kings.

Julius Randle is trading at -111 for the Over 17.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -190. Although it’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, the spot may actually work in Randle’s favor. He didn’t play heavy minutes in the front end against the Lakers, and if the pace slows down due to tired legs, Randle becomes the type of player you can rely on in the half court to generate offense in isolation. With John Collins out, Derrick Jones Jr. is expected to start at one of the forward spots. That leaves the Clippers with several smaller defenders on the floor—such as Jones Jr., Darius Garland, and Kris Dunn—which creates opportunities for Randle to mismatch hunt and use his strength to play bully ball once he gets the ball.

The Clippers rank as the 7th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league as the home team this year.. The matchup against Minnesota is a strong one for 3-point shots; when the Timberwolves are on the road, the other team's starting SGs have tallied the 4th-most three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (2.6).. The Clippers will likely get a boost in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the 7th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).