NBA Picks

The Bucks are way too late to the tanking party, but that hasn’t stopped Doc Rivers’ men from losing their last two games by a combined 64 points. After those beatdowns, just about the last thing Milwaukee needs is a visit from a ruthless San Antonio squad. 

The Spurs are 16-8-1 ATS in their last 25 contests, and I’m siding with Wemby and Co. here despite the massive spread. San Antonio has been reliable on the road all year, posting a 26-11 SU mark, and the early Saturday tip should only be a minor obstacle. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 outings.

The 5th-most lethargic tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark further chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Naz Reid should see some minutes at the 3 in Jaden McDaniels’s stead, and he should take those added minutes and turn them into transition buckets, offensive rebounds and open 3s.

With respect to three-pointers, the Detroit Pistons's unimpressive 34.9% rate of sunk threes places 10th-weakest in the NBA this year.. The Pistons have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games when playing away from home.

The Hornets are starting to heat up once again, and they are picking the right time to do so. They've won five straight, and now get a Sixers side that may be without Maxey once again. I'll take the team that's healthier and the one with the more efficient offense. 

In regard to shooting, the 76ers's feeble 46.2% field goal percentage rates 7th-worst in the league this year.. The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Sacramento Kings rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games while playing on the road.

The Hawks have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games while at home.

Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have allowed the third-most points per game at 128.1, while the Grizzlies have surrendered the fourth-most at 126.4. In that span, Chicago’s 120.7 defensive rating ranks 24th, and Memphis’ 125.1 defensive rating ranks 28th.

Chicago sports the fastest pace across the last 10 games at 104.8, while Memphis isn’t far behind in ninth with a 101.1 pace. 

Injuries have decimated both teams, and both are playing the second legs of back-to-back sets, but fatigue isn’t something I’m worried about. Memphis players rarely sniff 30 minutes these days, and the roster is one of the youngest in the Association. Chicago is going deep down the bench, so the available players should all have relatively fresh legs.

This year, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 23.9% on three-pointers (lowest in the NBA) against the Chicago Bulls, designating this as a difficult matchup.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Memphis Grizzlies grade out 3rdworst in in the league with a mere 7.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Utah has either lost by less than 17 points or outright won eight of their last 10 games, including a close loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday. The Jazz are 18-17 ATS on the road and 16-16 as the road underdog. Utah is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points on the road.

The Phoenix Suns haven’t played well enough as of late to be favored by 17 points. The Suns are 7-3 ATS across their last 10 games, but Phoenix is just 4-6 straight up and won only one game by 17 or more points. Phoenix is just 10-11 ATS as the home favorite and 2-2 when favored by at least 10 points at home.

Phoenix has the rest advantage tonight, as the Jazz are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set. Bettors shouldn’t be concerned, as the Jazz are 8-6 ATS on no rest. I’ll take the shorthanded Jazz to keep this game within punching distance and cover a monstrously large spread.

The Jazz rank as the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as it relates to 3-point shots.. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 29.1% on 3-pointers (3rd-weakest in the NBA) vs. the Suns, designating this as a challenging matchup.. The Suns have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Jazz.