NBA Picks

The Washington Wizards have hit the Over seven of the last 10, but Overs that cashed at 249+ points (4) came against teams that were in the playoff picture. The Chicago Bulls have actually gone Under the total in three of their last four, and the last 10 head-to-heads between these teams have produced just one Over at this hefty number – and they’ve cashed the Under in each of the last five.

The Bulls have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the NBA while playing away from home this year.. The fastest tempo team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Bulls.. The Wizards have played at the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Chicago Bulls.

Indiana has secured its needed draft lottery positioning. The Pacers can play as competitively as able. And with the Timberwolves down both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, they are quite vulnerable to upsets. Edwards and McDaniels are no less than two of Minnesota’s three-best bucket getters, and many nights feel like they are the top two.

Indiana enters this game ranked 24th in opponent rebounds per game and 27th in rebounding rate since the All-Star break. DiVincenzo averages 4.2 rebounds per game and the Pacers take a lot of threes and should mean lots of long boards for Donte.

While neither team has been playing anything resembling a good NBA lineup lately, the Nets are at least sticking with the players who have gotten two wins in their last four games. Milwaukee is sitting most of the key players who have had the same recent success for the Bucks, leaving little depth or talent on their side tonight. I'm taking Brooklyn to cover at home.

The Bucks rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.

Both teams aren't playing their best basketball right now, but Toronto is still the better defensive team, ranking 10th in defensive rating to Miami's 21st. The effort at that end of the floor will be the difference in this game with such a short spread.

The Heat have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the league this year.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Heat grade out 5th-best in in the NBA on the road with 13.1 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.. Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 4.4 foul shots per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Toronto Raptors, making it fairly effortless to get to the free-throw line.

A healthy Celtics rotation is a scary prospect for the rest of the league, and they’ve looked in sync while winning eight of their last 10 games. Boston is also 8-2 SU in its past 10 matchups against Charlotte, and I’m laying the points here with Joe Mazzulla’s men, who are 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings. 

Though the Hornets embarrassed Boston in early March, the Celtics got revenge a few weeks later with a 114-99 victory, despite missing Jaylen Brown. The hosts are at full strength now, and their defense is the stingiest in the NBA, allowing just 107 PPG. Look for that attention to detail to stifle a Hornets team that leads the league in made 3-pointers per game.

Jayson Tatum is priced at -115 for over 21.5 points, and I’m hitting that number—I price him closer to -185 to clear it. The Celtics take on the Hornets on Tuesday, and schematically, Charles Lee likes to sell out to defend corner threes—something that should be emphasized against shooters like Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman. That approach leaves the defense vulnerable in the high post, which is where Tatum thrives. With Neemias Queta providing a lob threat and shooters spaced in the corners, Tatum should have plenty of opportunities to operate in isolation with limited help defense. The Hornets also use a heavy switching scheme, and you can expect Joe Mazzulla to hunt favorable matchups—especially targeting LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel—for Tatum to attack one-on-one.

It's that time of the year when teams eliminated from the playoffs, shut down starters and put embarrassingly little effort into defense. That puts the betting value on props for marginal players getting increased opportunities. That includes Jazz forward Kyle Filipowski who has scored at least 20 points in five of his last six games. Filipowski is coming off a 20-point performance against OKC's elite defense where he took a season-high 25 field goal attempts in 38 minutes. He'll have another productive night against the Pelicans who rank 23rd in the league in ppg allowed (119.4).

Bailey is averaging 19.5 points per game over his last 15 games, which includes him shooting a solid 37.7% from 3-point range.

The return of Stephen Curry immediately boosts Golden State’s offensive abilities, and his on-court/off-court splits this season are eye-opening. The Warriors are a Top-12 offense without Curry and a Bottom-2 offense without him.

The Sacramento Kings check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have shot 38.4% on shot attempts from the field (2nd-weakest in the league) against the Warriors, resulting in a difficult matchup.. The 3rd-slowest pace road team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Sacramento Kings.. The Warriors have played at the 8th-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Sacramento Kings.

Once the Clippers find a healthy lead tonight, expect them to limit Kawhi Leonard’s minutes. It will be the savvy choice to make with what is at stake the rest of the week. Beyond that, it should be noted, Leonard has not cleared this prop in any of his last seven games.

Collins is averaging 19.8 points over his last four games with a .704 effective field goal percentage, putting up at least 15 points in all four. Dallas allows the fourth-most points in the paint per game since the All-Star break.

With both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined for the next few weeks, Kennard and LeBron James shared the offensive initiation duties in Sunday’s loss at Dallas, James playing nearly 39 minutes and dishing out 15 assists while Kennard played more than 41 minutes and handed out 11 assists.

Just a week after pummeling the Lakers by 40+ points at home, the Thunder go back on the road to see them again, but this time without Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves. With the No. 1 seed in the West still to play for, OKC will be eager to handle business. OKC is 3-0 ATS against the Lakers this season and just covered a 24.5-point spread against the Jazz on Sunday.

Jalen Green has been excellent over his last 18 games, averaging 22.1 points and clearing this scoring line 14 times. In that span, Green has averaged 22.4 points at home. The electric scorer has gone for 20+ in six straight home games, averaging a healthy 24.2 points in those contests.

Green leads Phoenix in usage this season at a healthy 31.2, and he’s second in shot attempts. His excellence on offense should shine through tonight, as Green will face the Rockets for the first time since getting traded with Dillon Brooks for Kevin Durant.