I have serious concerns about whether the Heat can score enough against a tough Phoenix defense to keep up with Booker, Brooks, and the rest of the Suns attack. Phoenix has covered in 12 of its last 13 games, and I’m taking it to win outright as a one-point dog tonight.
Bam Adebayo has gone Under in eight straight games, and while that’s not ideal when backing the Over, it has pushed his line down three full points from 17.5 to 14.5 — creating a strong edge. Adebayo is still taking 12–13 shots per game; they just haven’t been falling. Mark Williams is a solid rim protector, but he’s far more effective against vertical threats at the rim than against mobile bigs who operate in space. That sets up well for Adebayo, who can attack off the catch and score with face-ups and quick pull-up jumpers. With the Over 14.5 priced at -108, I make this number much closer to -185.
The Phoenix Suns are the talk of the NBA following the trade deadline. With new ownership and sky-high ambitions, the Suns acquired Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets in a blockbuster deal. After a disappointing playoff upset at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks last year and a slow start to the year, it looked like the sun might be finally setting on this iteration of Phoenix. That’s all changed now, with most sportsbooks having them as the presumptive favorite to get out of the West. Following the 2022-23 All-Star break, the Suns had +400 odds of winning the NBA Finals.
Durant should integrate seamlessly alongside Chris Paul and Devin Booker in a mid-range-focused offense, and Deandre Ayton will have a chance to shine as a third or fourth option when this elite guard and wing combo gets it going.
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NBA superstar Kevin Durant highlights the Suns roster along with Chris Paul and Devin Booker.