DAL 10.5 o45.0
WAS -10.5 u45.0
TEN 9.0 o41.0
HOU -9.0 u41.0
NE 7.5 o46.5
MIA -7.5 u46.5
MIN -3.5 o39.0
CHI 3.5 u39.0
KC -11.0 o43.0
CAR 11.0 u43.0
TB -5.5 o41.5
NYG 5.5 u41.5
DET -7.5 o49.5
IND 7.5 u49.5
DEN -6.0 o40.5
LV 6.0 u40.5
SF 2.5 o47.0
GB -2.5 u47.0
ARI 1.0 o48.0
SEA -1.0 u48.0
PHI -3.0 o49.5
LA 3.0 u49.5
BAL -3.0 o51.0
LAC 3.0 u51.0
Final Nov 21
PIT 19 -3.5 o37.0
CLE 24 3.5 u37.0
Seattle 3rd NFC West9-8
New York 3rd NFC East6-11
ABC

Seattle @ New York props

MetLife Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Darren Waller Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Giants

D. Waller
tight end TE • N.Y. Giants
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Under
+110
Prop
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Under
+110
Projection Rating

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The New York Giants O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. Darren Waller's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 61.4%. The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (69.3%) versus TEs since the start of last season (69.3%).

Darren Waller

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.1
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.1

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The New York Giants O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. Darren Waller's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 61.4%. The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (69.3%) versus TEs since the start of last season (69.3%).

Matt Breida Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Giants

M. Breida
running back RB • N.Y. Giants
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.1
Best Odds
Under
-135
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.1
Best Odds
Under
-135
Projection Rating

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The New York Giants O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Matt Breida

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.1

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The New York Giants O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Noah Fant Receptions Made Props • Seattle

N. Fant
tight end TE • Seattle
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.5
Best Odds
Over
+136
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.5
Best Odds
Over
+136
Projection Rating

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Noah Fant has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 11.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 77th percentile among tight ends. Noah Fant has been among the best pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile. Noah Fant's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 78.4% to 88.4%.

Noah Fant

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.5
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.5

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Noah Fant has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 11.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 77th percentile among tight ends. Noah Fant has been among the best pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile. Noah Fant's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 78.4% to 88.4%.

Kenneth Walker III Receptions Made Props • Seattle

K. Walker III
running back RB • Seattle
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2
Best Odds
Over
-135

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Kenneth Walker has played on 58.3% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs. Kenneth Walker's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 77.5% to 100.0%. The Giants safeties profile as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Kenneth Walker III

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Kenneth Walker has played on 58.3% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs. Kenneth Walker's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 77.5% to 100.0%. The Giants safeties profile as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Darius Slayton Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Giants

D. Slayton
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Giants
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Over
-182

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Darius Slayton has been less involved as a potential target this year (77.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (66.8%). The Seahawks safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Darius Slayton

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.2
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.2

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Darius Slayton has been less involved as a potential target this year (77.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (66.8%). The Seahawks safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

DK Metcalf Receptions Made Props • Seattle

D. Metcalf
wide receiver WR • Seattle
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5
Best Odds
Over
-170

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects D.K. Metcalf to garner 8.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among WRs. D.K. Metcalf's 66.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 94th percentile for WRs. D.K. Metcalf has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

DK Metcalf

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects D.K. Metcalf to garner 8.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among WRs. D.K. Metcalf's 66.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 94th percentile for WRs. D.K. Metcalf has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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