Los Angeles @ Green Bay props

The Rams will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brett Rypien in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average). With an impressive 99.3% Route Participation Rate (100th percentile) this year, Cooper Kupp ranks among the WRs with the most usage in the NFL. This year, the shaky Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded a staggering 72.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

With a 63.5% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league has been the Packers. In this contest, Aaron Jones is predicted by the projection model to place in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.4 targets. The Rams linebackers grade out as the worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

A running game script is indicated by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite this week. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to run only 62.0 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. The Packers have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.9 plays per game. Christian Watson's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 65.3% to 44.0%. This year, the formidable Rams defense has surrendered a meager 56.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-smallest rate in football.

With a 63.5% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league has been the Packers. The model projects Luke Musgrave to notch 4.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends. Luke Musgrave has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 13.8% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among TEs. Luke Musgrave ranks as one of the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 81st percentile. The Rams linebackers grade out as the worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Rams will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brett Rypien in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average). Darrell Henderson's 83.3% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a noteable gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 78.4% figure. This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed a massive 87.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.