Tennessee @ Tampa Bay props

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive scheme to skew 4.8% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 56.8 per game on average).

The model projects Mike Evans to total 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs. With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Mike Evans has been more heavily relied on in his team's passing attack. In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in football this year. With an impressive 4.5 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, Mike Evans ranks among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the league. The Titans pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (74.6%) to wide receivers this year (74.6%).

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the projection model to call just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week. The Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game. The Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 67.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a material diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 71.9% mark.

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football. The model projects DeAndre Hopkins to total 8.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts. DeAndre Hopkins places in the 95th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 70.3 mark this year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71%) vs. WRs this year (71.0%).

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football. Derrick Henry has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for just 44.7% of snaps compared to 60.5% last year. Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 84.3% to 94.9%. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Rachaad White's 70.5% Route% this year shows a noteable boost in his air attack workload over last year's 32.7% rate. In this game, Rachaad White is projected by the model to slot into the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.5 targets. In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in football this year. Rachaad White's 4.1 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 3.1 figure. Rachaad White's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 89.5% to 97.2%.