New England @ New York props

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.6 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. The Patriots defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.9 per game) this year. In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among running backs with 5.6 targets. Saquon Barkley grades out as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 3.5 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.6 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. The Patriots defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.9 per game) this year. Wan'Dale Robinson's 81.8% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a significant progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 77.9% figure. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New England's collection of CBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.6 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. The Patriots defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.9 per game) this year. While Daniel Bellinger has received 4.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in New York's passing offense in this week's contest at 12.8%. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, New England's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the 8th-worst in the league.

The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.19 seconds per play. In this game, Rhamondre Stevenson is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.6 targets. Rhamondre Stevenson comes in as one of the leading running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 94th percentile. This year, the shaky New York Giants pass defense has yielded a staggering 85.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-largest rate in football.

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Patriots O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.19 seconds per play. The projections expect Hunter Henry to accrue 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among tight ends. With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Hunter Henry has been more prominently incorporated in his offense's pass game.