Green Bay @ New York props

The Packers are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script. The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 57.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a mere 55.9 per game on average). As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, New York's collection of safeties has been great this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. Wan'Dale Robinson's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 77.9% to 81.4%. The Packers pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68%) to WRs this year (68.0%).

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. In this contest, Saquon Barkley is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 95th percentile among RBs with 5.3 targets. Saquon Barkley rates in the 99th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 26.6 figure this year. Saquon Barkley comes in as one of the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 3.2 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile. When it comes to linebackers pass-rushing, Green Bay's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in football.

The model projects Tucker Kraft to notch 4.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs. The model projects Tucker Kraft to be much more involved in his team's passing offense in this contest (14.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).

The model projects Jayden Reed to earn 6.8 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts. The Giants cornerbacks rank as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 55.0% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 129.8 plays on offense run: the 5th-most among all games this week. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year. In regards to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the worst in the NFL this year. Daniel Bellinger's receiving skills have declined this season, notching just 1.4 adjusted catches compared to 2.7 last season.