Baltimore @ San Francisco props

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.0 per game) this year. The model projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 5.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs. Christian McCaffrey's receiving skills have improved this year, totaling 4.1 adjusted catches compared to a measly 3.1 last year. Christian McCaffrey's 89.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a noteworthy gain in his receiving ability over last year's 85.1% rate. The Ravens pass defense has been gouged for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.1%) vs. RBs this year (85.1%).

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -6.5-point underdogs. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in the league. With a remarkable 93.7% Route Participation% (93rd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the wideouts with the highest volume in football. The leading projections forecast Zay Flowers to earn 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among WRs. With a terrific 4.7 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands as one of the leading WRs in the NFL in football.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 57.1% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Ravens to call the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. With a puny 0.8 adjusted receptions per game (20th percentile) this year, Gus Edwards stands among the weakest pass-catching running backs in the NFL. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -6.5-point underdogs. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in the league. This week, Isaiah Likely is projected by the projections to land in the 89th percentile among TEs with 6.0 targets. The model projects Isaiah Likely to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack in this game (19.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.4% in games he has played). Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 65.4% to 82.7%.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.0 per game) this year. With a high 89.4% Route Participation Rate (88th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel rates as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in football. In this week's contest, Deebo Samuel is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.7 targets. With an impressive 4.1 adjusted catches per game (75th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel places as one of the top wide receivers in the league in the league. Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 63.4% to 71.8%.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.0 per game) this year. This week, George Kittle is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.6 targets. George Kittle's 48.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 42.2. With a remarkable 3.9 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, George Kittle rates as one of the top pass-game tight ends in the NFL.