Pittsburgh @ Baltimore props

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 47.8% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week. Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pat Freiermuth's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 41.2. When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 47.8% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week. Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers. When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year. The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59%) vs. wide receivers this year (59.0%).

The Pittsburgh Steelers may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Mason Rudolph. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to total 5.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. Jaylen Warren's 15.0% Target Rate this year marks a material growth in his pass game usage over last year's 6.3% figure. Jaylen Warren's 3.5 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a material growth in his receiving skills over last season's 1.8 mark.