Cincinnati @ Kansas City props

The Bengals are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Bengals as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to accrue 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs. While Mike Gesicki has garnered 8.4% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's passing offense in this game at 13.5%. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Kansas City's unit has been awful since the start of last season, grading out as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 126.7 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week. The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Cincinnati Bengals since the start of last season (a lowly 56.4 per game on average). Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.0 per game) since the start of last season. With a bad 75.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (24th percentile) since the start of last season, Zack Moss ranks as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to accumulate 7.9 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends. Travis Kelce rates in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with a superb 49.5 figure since the start of last season. With a fantastic 6.0 adjusted catches per game (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Travis Kelce rates among the leading TE receiving threats in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (81.6%).

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. This week, Isiah Pacheco is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 85th percentile among running backs with 3.7 targets. With an exceptional 10.4% Target Share (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Isiah Pacheco has been among the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the league. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season. With a fantastic 3.1 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Isiah Pacheco rates as one of the top RBs in the pass game in the NFL.

The Bengals are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Bengals as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 95.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. The projections expect Ja'Marr Chase to earn 10.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Ja'Marr Chase has been one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 6.3 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. In this contest, Rashee Rice is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 91st percentile among wide receivers with 8.4 targets. While Rashee Rice has received 18.7% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Kansas City's pass game in this game at 24.0%. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season. With an excellent 5.1 adjusted catches per game (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Rashee Rice places as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the league.