New York @ San Francisco props

The predictive model expects Brandon Aiyuk to earn 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts. Brandon Aiyuk slots into the 92nd percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a massive 66.8 mark last year. Brandon Aiyuk checks in as one of the best WRs in the league last year, averaging an outstanding 5.1 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile. Brandon Aiyuk grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching an excellent 70.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 76th percentile among wideouts.

With a 5.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 54.7% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have only 125.9 plays on offense called: the lowest number out of all the games this week. The smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the San Francisco 49ers last year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average). Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.7 per game) last year.

With a 5.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have only 126.7 plays on offense called: the lowest number out of all the games this week. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.7 per game) last year. With a mere 0.3 adjusted receptions per game (4th percentile) last year, Jordan Mason stands among the worst pass-catching RBs in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Jets to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume. The Jets O-line profiles as the worst in the league last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league last year in defending pass-catchers.

The leading projections forecast the Jets to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume. The Jets O-line profiles as the worst in the league last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league last year in defending pass-catchers.

With an extraordinary 88.9% Route Participation% (99th percentile) last year, George Kittle stands among the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL. The leading projections forecast George Kittle to garner 6.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle checks in as one of the top pass-game tight ends last year, averaging a fantastic 4.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to total 7.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to WRs. Deebo Samuel has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 21.2% last year, which ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Deebo Samuel ranks as one of the leading wide receivers in the league last year, averaging an impressive 4.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 85th percentile. Deebo Samuel rates as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in an outstanding 71.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 83rd percentile among WRs.

The Jets are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL last year, which should mean increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing improved conditions this week. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel last year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) last year. With an exceptional 98.0% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) last year, Garrett Wilson ranks among the wideouts with the most usage in the league.