Houston @ Indianapolis Props

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.6 per game) last year. The Colts pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.9%) versus wide receivers last year (63.9%).

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.6 per game) last year. The Colts pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.4%) versus RBs last year (77.4%).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week. The 10th-most plays in football have been run by the Colts last year (a staggering 59.9 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. With an extraordinary 48.2% Route% (91st percentile) last year, Jonathan Taylor places among the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. This week, Jonathan Taylor is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile among running backs with 3.4 targets.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.6 per game) last year.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 55.6% of their downs: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Kylen Granson has been one of the worst possession receivers in the league among tight ends, catching just 65.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 10th percentile.

Alec Pierce has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Adonai Mitchell has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Stefon Diggs has gone over 4.5 in 7 of his last 8 games.

Tank Dell has gone over 4.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.