New York @ Washington props

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Giants are projected by the model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week. The New York offensive line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Giants are projected by the model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week. The New York offensive line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board. The Commanders pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.8%) to tight ends since the start of last season (67.8%).

A rushing game script is implied by the Commanders being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. The projections expect the Washington Commanders as the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Washington Commanders have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier weather in this week's contest. As it relates to defensive tackles pass-rushing, New York's unit has been exceptional since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Right now, the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders. In this week's contest, Terry McLaurin is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among WRs with 6.4 targets. Terry McLaurin's 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for WRs. Terry McLaurin has been one of the top WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 4.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New York's unit has been lousy since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -3-point underdogs. The Washington Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.2 per game) since the start of last season. Devin Singletary has run a route on 44.5% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 76th percentile among running backs. The model projects Devin Singletary to earn 3.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs. The Commanders pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (83.4%) to running backs since the start of last season (83.4%).

Right now, the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders. In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is projected by the projections to finish in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets. Zach Ertz's 40.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 93rd percentile for TEs. With an outstanding 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz rates among the top TE receiving threats in football.