Chicago @ Houston props

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. With a 66.1% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 4th-most pass-centric team in football has been the Bears. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 132.0 total plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. With a terrific 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet places as one of the best pass-game TEs in the NFL. Cole Kmet profiles as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a terrific 83.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. With a 66.1% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 4th-most pass-centric team in football has been the Bears. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 132.0 total plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. D'Andre Swift has run a route on 47.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 81st percentile among RBs. D'Andre Swift rates as one of the best pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 2.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football. Joe Mixon has run a route on 53.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 88th percentile among running backs. With a fantastic 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Joe Mixon rates as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. With a 66.1% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 4th-most pass-centric team in football has been the Bears. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 132.0 total plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. In this contest, D.J. Moore is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 96th percentile among wideouts with 9.8 targets. D.J. Moore has been one of the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 5.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football. Our trusted projections expect Dalton Schultz to notch 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs. With a stellar 3.9 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Schultz ranks among the best pass-game tight ends in football.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans since the start of last season (a whopping 59.9 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football. The model projects Nico Collins to accumulate 7.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile among wideouts. Nico Collins comes in as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.