Philadelphia @ Cincinnati props

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Bengals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume. Mike Gesicki's 3.0 adjusted catches per game this season shows a noteworthy improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 2.0 mark. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been gouged for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (76%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (76.0%).

The Eagles have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Eagles to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3-point favorite in this game. The Eagles have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.7 plays per game. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may fall-off. The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) this year. Saquon Barkley has been one of the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an impressive 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3-point favorite in this game. The Eagles have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.7 plays per game. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may fall-off. The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) this year. A.J. Brown checks in as one of the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 6.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Bengals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume. The predictive model expects Ja'Marr Chase to accrue 10.5 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs. Ja'Marr Chase checks in as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging an excellent 5.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

A throwing game script is implied by the Bengals being a -5.5-point underdog this week. The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game. Chase Brown's 82.4% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a substantial decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 93.3% mark. When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Philadelphia's DE corps has been exceptional this year, ranking as the best in football.