DET -7.5 o49.5
IND 7.5 u49.5
TEN 9.0 o41.0
HOU -9.0 u41.0
NE 7.5 o46.5
MIA -7.5 u46.5
MIN -3.5 o39.0
CHI 3.5 u39.0
KC -11.0 o43.0
CAR 11.0 u43.0
TB -5.5 o41.5
NYG 5.5 u41.5
DAL 10.5 o45.0
WAS -10.5 u45.0
DEN -6.0 o40.5
LV 6.0 u40.5
SF 2.5 o47.0
GB -2.5 u47.0
ARI 1.0 o48.0
SEA -1.0 u48.0
PHI -3.0 o49.5
LA 3.0 u49.5
BAL -3.0 o51.0
LAC 3.0 u51.0
Final Nov 21
PIT 19 -3.5 o37.0
CLE 24 3.5 u37.0
Chicago 4th NFC North4-6
Indianapolis 2nd AFC South5-6
CBS

Chicago @ Indianapolis props

Lucas Oil Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

DJ Moore Receptions Made Props • Chicago

D. Moore
wide receiver WR • Chicago
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.1
Best Odds
Over
+105

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's game, D.J. Moore is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.1 targets. With an exceptional 5.3 adjusted receptions per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, D.J. Moore stands among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league.

DJ Moore

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.1
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.1

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's game, D.J. Moore is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.1 targets. With an exceptional 5.3 adjusted receptions per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, D.J. Moore stands among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league.

Cole Kmet Receptions Made Props • Chicago

C. Kmet
tight end TE • Chicago
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Over
-110

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The predictive model expects Cole Kmet to notch 4.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs. With an outstanding 4.4 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet rates as one of the top TEs in the pass game in football.

Cole Kmet

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.1

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The predictive model expects Cole Kmet to notch 4.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs. With an outstanding 4.4 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet rates as one of the top TEs in the pass game in football.

D'Andre Swift Receptions Made Props • Chicago

D. Swift
running back RB • Chicago
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3
Best Odds
Over
-119
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
3
Best Odds
Over
-119
Projection Rating

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. D'Andre Swift has run a route on 47.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs. This week, D'Andre Swift is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.

D'Andre Swift

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. D'Andre Swift has run a route on 47.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs. This week, D'Andre Swift is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.

Kylen Granson Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

K. Granson
tight end TE • Indianapolis
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.8
Best Odds
Over
-110

The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board. The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.3%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (76.3%).

Kylen Granson

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.8
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.8

The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board. The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.3%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (76.3%).

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

J. Taylor
running back RB • Indianapolis
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2
Best Odds
Over
-165

The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. Jonathan Taylor has run a route on 48.0% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Jonathan Taylor

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2

The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. Jonathan Taylor has run a route on 48.0% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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