Los Angeles @ San Francisco props

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the San Francisco 49ers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year. Puka Nacua's 66.7% Route% this season marks an impressive drop-off in his passing offense usage over last season's 91.7% mark. The Los Angeles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (60.7%). The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

A passing game script is suggested by the Rams being a -3-point underdog this week. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate on the slate this week. Colby Parkinson has gone out for fewer passes this year (54.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (33.3%).

A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 3-point favorite in this game. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week. The 49ers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.5 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.

The model projects George Kittle to garner 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends. George Kittle's 48.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 97th percentile for TEs. George Kittle's receiving skills have gotten better this year, totaling 5.1 adjusted receptions vs a mere 4.0 last year. George Kittle's 85.8% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 72.7% mark. When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the league.

A passing game script is suggested by the Rams being a -3-point underdog this week. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate on the slate this week. Kyren Williams's 87.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a substantial improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 68.1% figure. The 49ers pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (89.7%) to RBs this year (89.7%).

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.3%) versus running backs this year (90.3%). When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the league.