Cincinnati @ Tennessee props

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.9% pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Titans to run the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. The Tennessee O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board. Tony Pollard's 75.9% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a remarkable drop-off in his receiving talent over last year's 83.5% mark.

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.9% pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Titans to run the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. The Tennessee O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board. Calvin Ridley's 53.4% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates an impressive regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 58.9% rate.

With a 6-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see only 128.1 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league. The Bengals offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

With a 6-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see only 128.1 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league. The Bengals offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 63.0% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 97.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs. In this contest, Ja'Marr Chase is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.4 targets. Ja'Marr Chase ranks as one of the leading WRs in the game this year, averaging an impressive 7.2 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 99th percentile. Ja'Marr Chase's 75.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents an impressive gain in his receiving talent over last year's 71.2% figure.

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -6-point underdogs. The Bengals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.2 per game) this year. This year, the poor Bengals pass defense has yielded a massive 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's safety corps has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.