Kansas City @ Cleveland props

A rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year. DeAndre Hopkins's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 73.3. DeAndre Hopkins's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a material reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 4.4 figure.

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being predicted in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume. When talking about protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Browns profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year. The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 8th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their standard approach. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 79.0% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 148.3 plays on offense run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a staggering 62.8 per game on average).

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the league (67.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Kansas City Chiefs. The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 148.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.7 plays per game. With a remarkable 10.3% Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Isiah Pacheco rates among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in the league. When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs grades out as the best in the league this year.

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their standard approach. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 140.7 plays on offense run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a staggering 62.8 per game on average). With a fantastic 2.7 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jerome Ford has been as one of the top pass-game running backs in the NFL.

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being predicted in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume. When talking about protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Browns profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year. The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 8th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the league (67.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Kansas City Chiefs. The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 148.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.7 plays per game. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to notch 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among tight ends. Travis Kelce's 56.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 50.2.