Dallas @ Carolina props

A rushing game script is suggested by the Panthers being a 3-point favorite this week. The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Panthers this year (just 55.2 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Adam Thielen has been a much smaller part of his team's pass game this year (19.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.7%).

The Cowboys may lean on the pass less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Cooper Rush. This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 133.9 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The Cowboys have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game. The projections expect Rico Dowdle to earn 4.1 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

The Dallas offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Chuba Hubbard has run more routes this season (59.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (42.6%). The model projects Chuba Hubbard to notch 3.8 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs. Chuba Hubbard is positioned as one of the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's collection of safeties has been lousy this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the league.

The Cowboys may lean on the pass less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Cooper Rush. This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 133.9 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The Cowboys have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game. This year, the deficient Carolina Panthers pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-highest rate in the league.