New England @ Arizona props

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Trey McBride has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (90.3% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (62.7%). The projections expect Trey McBride to notch 9.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Trey McBride's 6.6 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a material progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 4.7 rate. Trey McBride's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 76.3% to 79.9%.

This week's line implies a running game script for the Cardinals, who are favored by 6 points. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 4th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -6-point underdogs. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Hunter Henry has gone out for fewer passes this year (81.8% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (71.6%). In this week's game, Hunter Henry is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.0 targets. Hunter Henry's receiving skills have been refined this season, compiling 4.5 adjusted catches compared to a mere 3.3 last season.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 127.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week. The Patriots O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

This week's line implies a running game script for the Cardinals, who are favored by 6 points. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 4th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -6-point underdogs. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. With an exceptional 50.0% Route Participation% (87th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in the league. With a terrific 2.6 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson places as one of the best running backs in the pass game in football. This year, the porous Cardinals pass defense has been torched for a colossal 91.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 2nd-worst rate in football.