New York @ Atlanta props

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -9.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The 4th-most plays in football have been run by the New York Giants this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average). This year, the deficient Atlanta Falcons pass defense has given up a whopping 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the worst rate in the league.

The model projects the Giants to call the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Giants ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year. The Falcons pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.6%) to tight ends this year (69.6%). The Falcons safeties rank as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 64.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 4.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs. Bijan Robinson profiles as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -9.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The 4th-most plays in football have been run by the New York Giants this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average). The Falcons pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.7%) to RBs this year (87.7%).

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Drake London to notch 8.2 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to WRs. Drake London's 28.5% Target% this year signifies a remarkable progression in his passing attack workload over last year's 23.3% rate. Drake London's 5.6 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a substantial progression in his receiving skills over last year's 4.3 figure.

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. This week, Kyle Pitts is projected by the projections to find himself in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.2 targets. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (92.9%) versus TEs this year (92.9%). The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.