Tampa Bay @ Los Angeles props

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have just 127.3 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week. The Chargers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.5%) versus running backs this year (76.5%). The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (62.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The model projects Cade Otton to earn 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs. Cade Otton has been a more important option in his offense's air attack this season (19.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%). In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers profiles as the 4th-best in football this year.

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Stone Smartt to earn 4.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends. The projections expect Stone Smartt to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense in this week's contest (14.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.8% in games he has played). Stone Smartt's 76.7% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 57.5% rate.

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year. Gus Edwards checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing a remarkable 91.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile. The Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87.5%) versus running backs this year (87.5%). As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (62.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to total 8.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among WRs. Mike Evans's 65.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the league: 92nd percentile for wide receivers. Mike Evans comes in as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a fantastic 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.