Buffalo @ Detroit props

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 61.9 total plays in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 53.8 per game on average). The Lions pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.2%) to wideouts this year (61.2%). The Lions safeties project as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a whopping 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 9.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 26.7% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs. The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.0%).

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (36.9 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to accrue 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among TEs. Dalton Kincaid's 44.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 35.1.

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a whopping 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile among running backs with 4.1 targets. Jahmyr Gibbs checks in as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a terrific 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile. Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 73.7% to 82.3%.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 61.9 total plays in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 53.8 per game on average). The Lions safeties project as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a whopping 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. In this contest, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projections to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets. Sam LaPorta's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 71.7% to 76.8%. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Buffalo's group of LBs has been awful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.