KC -1.0 o48.5
PHI 1.0 u48.5
Green Bay 3rd NFC North11-6
Seattle 2nd NFC West10-7

Green Bay @ Seattle props

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Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Christian Watson Receptions Made Props • Green Bay

C. Watson
wide receiver WR • Green Bay
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.7
Best Odds
Over
-146

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.6 per game) this year. The model projects Christian Watson to notch 6.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile among WRs. Christian Watson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 55.0% to 62.9%.

Christian Watson

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.7
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.7

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.6 per game) this year. The model projects Christian Watson to notch 6.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile among WRs. Christian Watson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 55.0% to 62.9%.

Jayden Reed Receptions Made Props • Green Bay

J. Reed
wide receiver WR • Green Bay
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Over
+105

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.6 per game) this year. Jayden Reed has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (63.4%). Jayden Reed's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 72.1% to 76.0%.

Jayden Reed

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.8

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.6 per game) this year. Jayden Reed has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (63.4%). Jayden Reed's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 72.1% to 76.0%.

Noah Fant Receptions Made Props • Seattle

N. Fant
tight end TE • Seattle
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Over
-130

The model projects the Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL. Noah Fant's 3.3 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a significant growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 2.3 rate.

Noah Fant

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.1

The model projects the Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL. Noah Fant's 3.3 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a significant growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 2.3 rate.

Tucker Kraft Receptions Made Props • Green Bay

T. Kraft
tight end TE • Green Bay
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.5
Best Odds
Over
+126

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.6 per game) this year. Tucker Kraft's 84.3% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a meaningful progression in his air attack volume over last season's 44.0% figure. This week, Tucker Kraft is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.9 targets.

Tucker Kraft

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.5
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.5

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.6 per game) this year. Tucker Kraft's 84.3% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a meaningful progression in his air attack volume over last season's 44.0% figure. This week, Tucker Kraft is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.9 targets.

Josh Jacobs Receptions Made Props • Green Bay

J. Jacobs
running back RB • Green Bay
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.3
Best Odds
Under
-137

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The Green Bay Packers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game. Josh Jacobs's 13.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 20.5. The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.9%) versus running backs this year (78.9%). As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Seattle's safety corps has been excellent this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Josh Jacobs

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.3

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The Green Bay Packers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game. Josh Jacobs's 13.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 20.5. The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.9%) versus running backs this year (78.9%). As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Seattle's safety corps has been excellent this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Zach Charbonnet Receptions Made Props • Seattle

Z. Charbonnet
running back RB • Seattle
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Over
-156

The model projects the Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL. Zach Charbonnet has been one of the leading pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Zach Charbonnet

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.1
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.1

The model projects the Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL. Zach Charbonnet has been one of the leading pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Made Props • Seattle

J. Smith-Njigba
wide receiver WR • Seattle
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.6
Best Odds
Over
-120

The model projects the Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receiving talent has been refined this year, totaling 5.8 adjusted catches vs just 3.8 last year.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.6
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.6

The model projects the Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receiving talent has been refined this year, totaling 5.8 adjusted catches vs just 3.8 last year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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