Cincinnati @ Carolina props

The predictive model expects the Panthers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are anticipated by the model to run only 61.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week. Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the league. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season. Diontae Johnson's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 61.3% to 52.8%.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week. This week, Ja'Marr Chase is expected by the predictive model to land in the 98th percentile among wideouts with 9.7 targets. Our trusted projections expect Ja'Marr Chase to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack in this contest (26.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played). With an exceptional 6.1 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the top wide receivers in the league in football. Ja'Marr Chase's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 71.2% to 89.6%.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week. Zack Moss's 57.6% Route% this year reflects an impressive gain in his air attack utilization over last year's 46.2% rate. In this week's game, Zack Moss is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.7 targets. The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 5 points. Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 27.26 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-worst tempo among all games this week. The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 56.4 plays per game. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (just 28.1 per game) since the start of last season. While Mike Gesicki has been responsible for 18.2% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a less important option in Cincinnati's passing offense in this week's contest at 13.0%.

The Panthers are a 5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average). This week, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets. Chuba Hubbard has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 8.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 75th percentile among running backs. Chuba Hubbard grades out as one of the top RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 2.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

The Panthers are a 5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average). Tommy Tremble's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 76.9% to 83.7%. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81.3%) versus TEs since the start of last season (81.3%).