TEN 4.5 o42.5
IND -4.5 u42.5
CLE 10.0 o47.0
CIN -10.0 u47.0
PHI -3.5 o46.0
WAS 3.5 u46.0
LA -3.0 o47.0
NYJ 3.0 u47.0
NYG 10.0 o43.0
ATL -10.0 u43.0
DET -6.5 o47.0
CHI 6.5 u47.0
ARI -5.0 o46.5
CAR 5.0 u46.5
MIN -3.0 o42.5
SEA 3.0 u42.5
NE 14.0 o46.5
BUF -14.0 u46.5
JAC 2.5 o41.0
LV -2.5 u41.0
SF -1.0 o45.0
MIA 1.0 u45.0
TB -4.0 o48.0
DAL 4.0 u48.0
NO 14.0 o42.0
GB -14.0 u42.0
Final Dec 19
DEN 27
LAC 34
Final Dec 21
HOU 19 3.5 o42.5
KC 27 -3.5 u42.5
Final Dec 21
PIT 17 7.5 o44.0
BAL 34 -7.5 u44.0
Tampa Bay 1st NFC South8-6
Atlanta 2nd NFC South7-7
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Tampa Bay @ Atlanta props

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Kyle Pitts Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

K. Pitts
tight end TE • Atlanta
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Over
-140

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. In this game, Kyle Pitts is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.7 targets.

Kyle Pitts

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.2
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.2

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. In this game, Kyle Pitts is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.7 targets.

Rachaad White Receptions Made Props • Tampa Bay

R. White
running back RB • Tampa Bay
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.4
Best Odds
Over
-168

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see 128.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Rachaad White has been one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an excellent 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.

Rachaad White

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.4
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.4

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see 128.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Rachaad White has been one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an excellent 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.

Drake London Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

D. London
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.7
Best Odds
Over
+102

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Drake London to notch 9.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs. With a fantastic 5.2 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) this year, Drake London ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL in football.

Drake London

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.7
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.7

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Drake London to notch 9.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs. With a fantastic 5.2 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) this year, Drake London ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL in football.

Cade Otton Receptions Made Props • Tampa Bay

C. Otton
tight end TE • Tampa Bay
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Over
-115

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see 128.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Cade Otton comes in as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Cade Otton

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.8

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see 128.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Cade Otton comes in as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Chris Godwin Receptions Made Props • Tampa Bay

C. Godwin
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.3
Best Odds
Under
-145

When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year. The Falcons safeties grade out as the 8th-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Chris Godwin

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.3
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.3

When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year. The Falcons safeties grade out as the 8th-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Bijan Robinson Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

B. Robinson
running back RB • Atlanta
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.7
Best Odds
Over
-125

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. In this week's game, Bijan Robinson is anticipated by the model to rank in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.2 targets. Bijan Robinson checks in as one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an excellent 3.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Bijan Robinson

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.7
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.7

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. In this week's game, Bijan Robinson is anticipated by the model to rank in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.2 targets. Bijan Robinson checks in as one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an excellent 3.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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