Baltimore @ Cincinnati props

The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 48.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Ravens to call the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) typically prompt worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense this year: 6th-fewest in football. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 75.1% to 70.7%.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a measly 54.2 per game on average). The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency. Ja'Marr Chase's 4.8 adjusted catches per game this year represents a noteable drop-off in his receiving talent over last year's 6.3 figure. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Baltimore's CB corps has been great this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

This week, Isaiah Likely is expected by the predictive model to place in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.0 targets. Isaiah Likely's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 16.0. The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all air attack statistics across the board. Isaiah Likely's 3.3 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a substantial improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year's 2.3 rate. Since the start of last season, the anemic Bengals pass defense has given up a monstrous 80.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the largest rate in football.

The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 48.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Ravens to call the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) typically prompt worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense this year: 6th-fewest in football. Derrick Henry's 85.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 90.7% mark.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.5 per game) this year. Zack Moss has been used more as a potential target this season (56.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (46.2%). In this contest, Zack Moss is forecasted by the projection model to place in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.0 targets. Zack Moss's receiving performance has been refined this season, notching 3.0 adjusted receptions vs a mere 1.9 last season.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.5 per game) this year. This week, Mike Gesicki is projected by the projections to position himself in the 80th percentile among TEs with 4.2 targets. Mike Gesicki's 34.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 18.9. Mike Gesicki's receiving skills have improved this season, compiling 3.8 adjusted catches compared to a mere 2.0 last season.