Tampa Bay @ New York props

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 6 points. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Giants, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.7 per game) this year. Mike Evans's 54.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 66.4.

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 6 points. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Giants, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.7 per game) this year. This year, the strong New York Giants defense has yielded a meager 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 6th-best rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Giants to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see just 126.8 total plays run: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) generally lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.

The New York Giants may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Tommy DeVito. This week's line implies a passing game script for the Giants, who are -6-point underdogs. The Giants have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.2 plays per game. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 2nd-most in football. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The New York Giants may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Tommy DeVito. This week's line implies a passing game script for the Giants, who are -6-point underdogs. The Giants have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.2 plays per game. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Right now, the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (63.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to total 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Cade Otton has been much more involved in his team's passing game this season (20.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%). In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year. Cade Otton's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this season, compiling 4.9 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 2.9 last season.