Atlanta @ Washington props

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 51.1% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week. The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL. The Washington Commanders linebackers grade out as the 5th-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 51.3% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week. The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency. Brian Robinson's 1.4 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys an impressive reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 2.4 rate. Brian Robinson's 81.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a significant drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 90.4% figure.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 51.1% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week. The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL. With a lackluster 62.3% Adjusted Completion% (9th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts stands as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to TEs.

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a massive 59.7 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football. In this game, Terry McLaurin is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets. Terry McLaurin ranks in the 90th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 63.6 mark this year. With an excellent 4.9 adjusted receptions per game (84th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin stands among the best wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a massive 59.7 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football. Our trusted projections expect Zach Ertz to accumulate 5.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs. Zach Ertz's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 91st percentile for tight ends. Zach Ertz checks in as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 3.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard approach. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 64.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs. The model projects Bijan Robinson to earn 4.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs. With a remarkable 3.7 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson has been among the top pass-game RBs in the league. Bijan Robinson's 93.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a noteable growth in his pass-catching skills over last year's 69.8% figure.