Washington @ Philadelphia props

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Commanders are expected by the predictive model to call only 64.6 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football. This year, the stout Eagles defense has allowed a paltry 61.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-smallest rate in football. The Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

With a 6-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach. The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Washington Commanders, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 25.9 per game) this year. Saquon Barkley's 19.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 26.4. Saquon Barkley's 1.9 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a significant decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 3.0 rate.

With a 6-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach. The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Washington Commanders, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 25.9 per game) this year. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Washington's LB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

The predictive model expects this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 5th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a whopping 59.6 per game on average). This week, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the projection model to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.1 targets. A.J. Brown's 86.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 77.6. With a fantastic 71.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (75th percentile) this year, A.J. Brown rates among the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers.

A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6-point underdog this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Commanders this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). The model projects Zach Ertz to earn 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends. Zach Ertz has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 17.5% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile among TEs. With an exceptional 3.5 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz stands as one of the leading TEs in the pass game in the league.

A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6-point underdog this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Commanders this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). The model projects Austin Ekeler to accumulate 3.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. With a remarkable 12.2% Target% (93rd percentile) this year, Austin Ekeler places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. Austin Ekeler's 87.7% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a remarkable progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 72.2% mark.