Kansas City Chiefs

3rd in AFC West (6 - 8 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Dec 21 13:00 ET

Player Props

Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Chimere Dike Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee

Chimere Dike
C. Dike
wide receiver WR • Tennessee
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.3
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.3
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Chimere Dike logo

Chimere Dike

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.3
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.3

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

All Matchup props

Gunnar Helm Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee

Gunnar Helm
G. Helm
tight end TE • Tennessee
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.18
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.18
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87%) to TEs this year (87.0%). When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Kansas City's unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the best in football.

Gunnar Helm logo

Gunnar Helm

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.18
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.18

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87%) to TEs this year (87.0%). When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Kansas City's unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the best in football.

All Matchup props

Xavier Worthy Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Xavier Worthy
X. Worthy
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.32
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.32
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.

Xavier Worthy logo

Xavier Worthy

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.32
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.32

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Kareem Hunt Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Kareem Hunt
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.32
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.32
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the poor Titans defense has surrendered a whopping 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-worst rate in the league.

Kareem Hunt logo

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.32
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.32

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the poor Titans defense has surrendered a whopping 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-worst rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Cam Ward Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee

Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.09
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.09
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Cam Ward logo

Cam Ward

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.09
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.09

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

All Matchup props

Travis Kelce Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Travis Kelce
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.25
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.25
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the end zone in this week's game (21.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.6% in games he has played). The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Travis Kelce logo

Travis Kelce

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.25
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.25

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the end zone in this week's game (21.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.6% in games he has played). The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

All Matchup props

Tony Pollard Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee

Tony Pollard
T. Pollard
running back RB • Tennessee
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.25
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.25
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. When it comes to air yards, Tony Pollard ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, averaging a whopping 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.3% to 81.7%. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the deficient Chiefs defense has allowed a whopping 0.21 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.

Tony Pollard logo

Tony Pollard

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.25
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.25

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. When it comes to air yards, Tony Pollard ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, averaging a whopping 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.3% to 81.7%. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the deficient Chiefs defense has allowed a whopping 0.21 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Gardner Minshew Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Gardner Minshew
G. Minshew
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.05
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.05
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. In this week's contest, Gardner Minshew is predicted by our trusted projection set to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8. With zero red zone rush attempts this year, Gardner Minshew's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat in Kansas City's rushing attack near the end zone.

Gardner Minshew logo

Gardner Minshew

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.05
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.05

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. In this week's contest, Gardner Minshew is predicted by our trusted projection set to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8. With zero red zone rush attempts this year, Gardner Minshew's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat in Kansas City's rushing attack near the end zone.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV
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