Kansas City Chiefs

3rd in AFC West (5 - 4 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 16 16:25 ET

Player Props

Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Troy Franklin Score a Touchdown Props • Denver

Troy Franklin
T. Franklin
wide receiver WR • Denver
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.41
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.41
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Troy Franklin

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.41
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.41

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Evan Engram Score a Touchdown Props • Denver

Evan Engram
E. Engram
tight end TE • Denver
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.18
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.18
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Evan Engram

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.18
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.18

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Kareem Hunt Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Kareem Hunt
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.6

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.

All Matchup props

RJ Harvey Score a Touchdown Props • Denver

RJ Harvey
R. Harvey
running back RB • Denver
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.49
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.49
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

RJ Harvey

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.49
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.49

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Rashee Rice
R. Rice
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.54
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.54
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Rashee Rice

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.54
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.54

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.

All Matchup props

Bo Nix Score a Touchdown Props • Denver

Bo Nix
B. Nix
quarterback QB • Denver
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.15
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.15
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Bo Nix

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.15
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.15

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Travis Kelce Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Travis Kelce
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.29
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.29
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Travis Kelce

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.29
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.29

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.

All Matchup props

Patrick Mahomes Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes
P. Mahomes
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.06
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.06
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. In this week's game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.4.

Patrick Mahomes

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.06
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.06

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. In this week's game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.4.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV
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