Kansas City Chiefs

3rd in AFC West (5 - 5 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 23 13:00 ET

Player Props

Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Tyler Warren Score a Touchdown Props • Indianapolis

Tyler Warren
T. Warren
tight end TE • Indianapolis
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.42
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.42
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%). As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Kansas City's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the best in the league.

Tyler Warren logo

Tyler Warren

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.42
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.42

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%). As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Kansas City's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the best in the league.

All Matchup props

Kareem Hunt Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Kareem Hunt
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.74
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.74
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

Kareem Hunt logo

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.74
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.74

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

All Matchup props

Daniel Jones Score a Touchdown Props • Indianapolis

Daniel Jones
D. Jones
quarterback QB • Indianapolis
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.22
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.22
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Daniel Jones's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.4% to 68.0%. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Daniel Jones logo

Daniel Jones

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.22
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.22

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Daniel Jones's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.4% to 68.0%. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%).

All Matchup props

Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Rashee Rice
R. Rice
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.56
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.56
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

Rashee Rice logo

Rashee Rice

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.56
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.56

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

All Matchup props

Jonathan Taylor Score a Touchdown Props • Indianapolis

Jonathan Taylor
J. Taylor
running back RB • Indianapolis
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.81
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.81
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. Jonathan Taylor's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for RBs. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Jonathan Taylor's 93.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 56.8% mark. Jonathan Taylor grades out in the 89th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.18 per game.

Jonathan Taylor logo

Jonathan Taylor

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.81
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.81

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. Jonathan Taylor's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for RBs. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Jonathan Taylor's 93.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 56.8% mark. Jonathan Taylor grades out in the 89th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.18 per game.

All Matchup props

Travis Kelce Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Travis Kelce
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.35
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.35
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (20.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).

Travis Kelce logo

Travis Kelce

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.35
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.35

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (20.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).

All Matchup props

Patrick Mahomes Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes
P. Mahomes
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.07
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.07
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.0 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.

Patrick Mahomes logo

Patrick Mahomes

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.07
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.07

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.6% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.0 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV
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