New York Jets

4th in AFC East (2 - 9 - 0)

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ATLAtlanta Atlanta
at
New York NYJN.Y. Jets
Sun, Nov 30 13:00 ET

ATL @ NYJ Picks

NFL Picks
Interceptions Thrown
Kirk Cousins logo Kirk Cousins o0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+162)
Best Odds
o0.5 +162 FanDuel
Pick made: 19 hours ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
o0.5  +140
These are quick bet odds
 -
o0.5  +162
o0.5  +130
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +133

Kirk Cousins picked up his first win of the season last week, but he’ll be without Drake London again and is overpriced in the interception market, even against the Jets. He threw two touchdowns and a pick last week while targeting David Sills, Darnell Mooney, Dylan Drummond, and KhaDarel Hodge. That’s a rough group of pass catchers, and it raises his interception risk again this week. Weather could also be an issue with possible rain and double-digit winds, which only helps the INT case. His two-interception prop at +600 is also worth a look. Last year, Cousins threw 16 picks in 14 games — one every 28 attempts.

Read Full Analysis
Score a Touchdown
John Metchie III logo John Metchie III Score a Touchdown (Yes: +375)
Best Odds
 +375 bet365
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +330
 +375
 -
 -
 +330

John Metchie cashed for me last week, and I’m going back to his TD at a price that didn’t adjust enough after hitting +475 for a score in Week 12. Metchie stepped into a passing upgrade with Tyrod Taylor and operated as the WR1, playing 88% of the snaps, running 90% of the routes, and leading all Jets wide receivers with six catches for 65 yards. He also saw a red-zone target and turned it into a 13-yard touchdown. This is a WR1 priced like a TE2, and he’s facing a Falcons defense that is giving up 25 points per game over its last six contests.

Score a Touchdown
Breece Hall logo
Breece Hall Score a Touchdown (Yes: +135)
Projection 0.54 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +135 DraftKings
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 +135
 +115
 +125
 -
 +125
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Breece Hall has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.9% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.. Breece Hall has totaled a massive 5.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Breece Hall's 90.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a significant growth in his receiving talent over last season's 76.7% figure.. This year, the poor Falcons defense has allowed a staggering 0.36 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the biggest rate in the NFL.
+135 at DraftKings
Receiving Yards
Darnell Mooney logo
Darnell Mooney o41.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 53.24 (Over)
Best Odds
o41.5 -113 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o41.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o42.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o45.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o43.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Darnell Mooney to total 8.1 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.. The projections expect Darnell Mooney to be a more important option in his team's air attack in this week's game (25.9% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.8% in games he has played).. Darnell Mooney has posted many more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
-113 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
John Metchie III logo
John Metchie III o34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 42.71 (Over)
Best Odds
o34.5 -115 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o34.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
 -
o35.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o35.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect John Metchie III to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.4% in games he has played).. John Metchie III's 94.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a noteable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 65.4% mark.. John Metchie III's 9.5 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a remarkable growth in his receiving talent over last season's 7.5 rate.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.
-115 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Adonai Mitchell logo
Adonai Mitchell o36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 44.87 (Over)
Best Odds
o35.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o36.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
 -
o38.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o35.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o37.5  -128
These are quick bet odds
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson logo
Bijan Robinson o34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 39.43 (Over)
Best Odds
o34.5 -114 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o34.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
 -
o34.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o34.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o34.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to garner 6.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.. In regards to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 5.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. Bijan Robinson's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 21.9.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
-114 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Kirk Cousins logo
Kirk Cousins o0.5 Rushing Yards (+120)
Projection 4.09 (Over)
Best Odds
o0.5 +120 DraftKings
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o0.5  +120
 -
o0.5  +116
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
 -
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to run on 47.4% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
+120 at DraftKings
Rushing Attempts
Tyrod Taylor logo
Tyrod Taylor o5.5 Rushing Attempts (+115)
Projection 6.3 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 +115 BetMGM
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o5.5  +115
 -
The predictive model expects the New York Jets as the 2nd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 49.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. In this game, Tyrod Taylor is expected by the model to notch the 5th-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 6.4. . Tyrod Taylor has been a much bigger part of his offense's ground game this year (18.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (0.0%).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's group of DTs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in football. in football.
+115 at BetMGM

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

63% picking Atlanta

63%
37%

Total Picks ATL 403, NYJ 240

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Total

'ljsjr' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

ljsjr is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +6800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Spread

'ljsjr' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

ljsjr is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +6800 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Spread

'nahfetest' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+2.5)

nahfetest is #1 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Spread

'BABYFACE024' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+1.5)

BABYFACE024 is #10 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Total

'BABYFACE024' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

BABYFACE024 is #10 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Spread

'money455' is picking Atlanta to cover (-1.5)

money455 is #2 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +6800 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Total

'money455' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

money455 is #2 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +6800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Total

'Lucknuts' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (39.5)

Lucknuts is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (8-0-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Spread

'Lucknuts' is picking Atlanta to cover (-1.5)

Lucknuts is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (8-0-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Total

'warrior7' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

warrior7 is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Spread

'warrior7' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+2.5)

warrior7 is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Spread

'jenjay23' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+1.5)

jenjay23 is #5 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Total

'jenjay23' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

jenjay23 is #5 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Total

'Blondie69' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

Blondie69 is #6 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (6-5-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Spread

'Blondie69' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+2.5)

Blondie69 is #6 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (6-5-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Total

'MLBFan8848' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

MLBFan8848 is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105
Spread

'MLBFan8848' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+2.5)

MLBFan8848 is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Spread

'plasma9' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+2.5)

plasma9 is #8 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Spread

'MartinK' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+1.5)

MartinK is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NYJ
Spread
-1.5 -135
+2.5 +104
Total

'MartinK' picks Atlanta vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (39.5)

MartinK is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -111
39.5 -105

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