New York Jets Picks
3rd in AFC East
(2 - 5 - 0)
Next Game
LV @ NYJ Picks
NFL PicksThis touchdown prop is in play up to 56% because the Raiders are committed to Jeanty, and he’s handled 67.7% of the red zone carries and 75% of the goal-line rushes this season. Jeanty has also found the end zone in consecutive games, and the Jets have surrendered seven touchdowns to running backs through seven games.
I recommend this Over up to 46.5 because the Raiders and Jets send out two of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas has allowed the highest offensive success rate while ranking 32nd in defensive DVOA over the past five weeks, and New York has been nearly as bad with respective 26th-ranked marks in the metrics during the same stretch.
This Cooper Over is playable up to 45+ receiving yards because the rookie has exploded onto the scene the past two weeks, and Las Vegas has been dominated through the air. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA over the last five weeks. Plus, Cooper has caught 11 of 12 targets for 218 yards and an elite 4.27 yards per route run over his past two games.
Only the Bills' defense is allowing more TDs to opposing WRs than the Raiders. Since Week 3, this defense ranks dead last in EPA/play, success rate, and dropback success rate. Omar Cooper still ripped off 115 yards and a score last week despite the return of Adonai Mitchell and the team running just 53 plays. He's gone for 100+ yards and a score in back-to-back weeks. His efficiency is off the charts right now, and he shouldn't be priced 100 points longer than Garrett Wilson. I have Cooper at 30%.
One of the first stats I look at when evaluating taking an Under is red-zone touchdown conversion rate, and this matchup features two of the NFL's least efficient offenses inside the 20-yard line. The Jets come into this one with a paltry 45% red-zone touchdown rate, with the Raiders not too far behind, converting at just 46%. No matter which way you attack this game, it's difficult to see a ton of points being scored. While the Raiders leave a lot on the table defensively, the Jets offense, with just four rushing touchdowns to its name this year behind their 16th-ranked offensive line, won't do enough with the ball to get this one over the line.
The Las Vegas Raiders have shown they can move the football, averaging 26.4 points per game compared to just 19.6 for the New York Jets. They own the league's fourth-best passing attack (14th in EPA/Play), throwing for nearly 270 yards per game - we'll take that in what could turn into an ugly game of football. That offensive production - a touchdown difference - is significant between these teams, and it's something New York will need to overcome if it wants to get a win at home after falling to the lowly Miami Dolphins. The biggest question is undoubtedly whether or not the Jets defense can do enough in the trenches and get Kirk Cousins to make off-platform throws. If they can't, Vegas will continue to roll.
The Raiders and Jets are two of the worst defenses in the league, and New York has surrendered the fourth-highest passing success rate dating back to Week 3. Cousins has also thrown for 225 or more passing yards in each of his past six games with an average of 286.2 per game, and Cooper has exploded over the past two weeks for 218 receiving yards and an elite 4.27 yards per route run.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusLV @ NYJ · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
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|
TOTAL
Under
46.5 Total
44.71 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
12.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
G. Smith
(QB)
o220.5 Passing Yards
236.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.2
DIFFERENCE
23.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
K. Cousins
(QB)
u232.5 Passing Yards
227.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.1
DIFFERENCE
22.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o0.5 Rushing Yards
4.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
G. Smith
(QB)
o7.5 Rushing Yards
13.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.4
DIFFERENCE
26.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Hall
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
60.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.4
DIFFERENCE
25.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
59.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.8
DIFFERENCE
24.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o27.5 Receiving Yards
28.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
21.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Bowers
(TE)
u70.5 Receiving Yards
65.31 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.2
DIFFERENCE
20.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Taylor
(TE)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
26.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
20.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Wilson
(WR)
o60.5 Receiving Yards
64.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
14.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
T. Tucker
(WR)
u48.5 Receiving Yards
48.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
0.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Wilson
(WR)
u5.5 Receptions Made
4.98 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Jeanty
(RB)
u3.5 Receptions Made
3.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Hall
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Bowers
(TE)
u6.5 Receptions Made
5.82 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
6.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. Tucker
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions Made
3.48 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Taylor
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.93 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
0.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o13.5 Rushing Attempts
15.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
14.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o32.5 Passing Attempts
33.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
5.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
G. Smith
(QB)
o30.5 Passing Attempts
30.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
G. Smith
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
21.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
20.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-15.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Cousins
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.05 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
22.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Jeanty
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.7 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Smith
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.12 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Hall
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.64 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Taylor
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Wilson
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Bowers
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Tucker
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-5.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
K. Cousins
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
17.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
G. Smith
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.40 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.52%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low