New York Jets
Picks

4th in AFC East (3 - 9 - 0)

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MIAMiami

NYJN.Y. Jets

Sun, Dec 7 13:00 ET

MIA @ NYJ Picks

NFL Picks

Spread

NYJ +3.0 (-120)

Best Odds

+2.5 +100

Pick made: 23 hours ago

+2.5 +100

+3.0 -120

+2.5 -102

+3.0 -120

+2.5 -106

When the Dolphins take the field at a chilly MetLife Stadium on Sunday, it will be the team’s first true road game since October 26. The Jets have quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL. New York is 3-2 SU in its last five games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in that span. Even in the two losses, New York was behind by only one score in the fourth quarter versus the Ravens and Patriots. Gang Green’s defense has taken some time to adjust to injuries, trades, and Aaron Glenn’s new schemes this season, but they’ve consistently been stiff against the run. That’s especially true since the Week 10 bye, ranked 12th in opponent success rate per run. Bottling up Miami RB De’Von Achane is priority No. 1 this Sunday.

Passing Yards

Tyrod Taylor o175.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 191.6 (Over)

Best Odds

o175.5 -113

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o175.5 -113

o183.5 -110

o178.5 -114

o183.5 -115

o179.5 -115

This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 7.91 yards.. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Darren Waller o26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 33.44 (Over)

Best Odds

o26.5 -110

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o26.5 -110

o26.5 -115

When talking about air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a remarkable 41.0 per game.. Darren Waller's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends.. Darren Waller checks in as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 43.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.. Darren Waller ranks as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 11.42 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 95th percentile.. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Adonai Mitchell o46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 55.23 (Over)

Best Odds

o46.5 -110

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o46.5 -110

o46.5 -115

The Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Breece Hall o16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 21.14 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -110

Pick made: 19 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o16.5 -110

o16.5 -118

This week, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to position himself in the 87th percentile among running backs with 3.6 targets.. Breece Hall has accrued a staggering 5.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 76.6% to 91.0%.. Breece Hall's 8.4 adjusted yards per target this year represents a substantial progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.2 rate.. This year, the porous Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a massive 90.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Mason Taylor o25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 30.22 (Over)

Best Odds

o25.5 -110

Pick made: 19 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o25.5 -110

o25.5 -115

This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded a massive 81.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a colossal 8.09 yards.. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

De'Von Achane o32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 37.49 (Over)

Best Odds

o32.5 -110

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o32.5 -110

De'Von Achane has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.2% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (61.2%).. In this week's contest, De'Von Achane is expected by the projection model to place in the 99th percentile among RBs with 6.8 targets.. De'Von Achane has accumulated a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Jets pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency versus running backs this year, yielding 6.77 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in football.. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Breece Hall o64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 75.67 (Over)

Best Odds

o64.5 -110

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o64.5 -110

o64.5 -115

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to run on 47.7% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to earn 20.3 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.. Breece Hall has earned 57.5% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.. With a stellar total of 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (84th percentile), Breece Hall rates among the best RBs in football this year.. This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins run defense has yielded a massive 140.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Tyrod Taylor o25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 30.75 (Over)

Best Odds

o25.5 -110

Pick made: 19 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o25.5 -110

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to run on 47.7% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. In this game, Tyrod Taylor is predicted by the model to earn the 4th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 6.3. . Tyrod Taylor has been a much bigger part of his offense's run game this year (20.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (0.0%).. With an outstanding rate of 26.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Tyrod Taylor stands as one of the top running quarterbacks in the league this year.. This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins run defense has yielded a massive 140.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

De'Von Achane o76.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 81.58 (Over)

Best Odds

o76.5 -110

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o76.5 -110

o76.5 -118

The Dolphins rank as the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.2% run rate.. In this game, De'Von Achane is projected by the model to find himself in the 92nd percentile among running backs with 18.3 rush attempts.. After comprising 46.4% of his team's rush attempts last year, De'Von Achane has been more involved in the run game this year, now making up 66.9%.. De'Von Achane has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).. Opposing squads have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) vs. the Jets defense this year.

-110 at bet365

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

There are no Consensus Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Consensus to see all Consensus picks.

Consensus Picks

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Total

'Lucknuts' picks Miami vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (42.0)

Lucknuts is #3 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (9-0-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

40.5 -108

41 -102

Spread

'Lucknuts' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+3.0)

Lucknuts is #3 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (9-0-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread

MIA

NYJ

Spread

-2.5 -111

+2.5 +104

Spread

'BetoCM' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+3.0)

BetoCM is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Spread

MIA

NYJ

Spread

-2.5 -111

+2.5 +104

Total

'BetoCM' picks Miami vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (40.5)

BetoCM is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

40.5 -108

41 -102

Spread

'jenjay23' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+3.0)

jenjay23 is #6 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (8-4-0) and +4150 units on the season.

Spread

MIA

NYJ

Spread

-2.5 -111

+2.5 +104

Total

'jenjay23' picks Miami vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (42.0)

jenjay23 is #6 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (8-4-0) and +4150 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

40.5 -108

41 -102

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New York Jets Picks

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MIA @ NYJ Picks

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

'Lucknuts' picks Miami vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (42.0)

'Lucknuts' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+3.0)

'BetoCM' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+3.0)

'BetoCM' picks Miami vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (40.5)

'jenjay23' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+3.0)

'jenjay23' picks Miami vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (42.0)

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New York Jets
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