New York Jets

Picks

Even if the Jets aren’t putting together much on offense, they can still move the ball with Breece Hall as they’ve demonstrated in recent weeks. The Falcons shouldn’t offer much resistance, giving up a hefty 4.6 yards per tote and a good deal of short passes, and the Jets should control this one as a result.

Breece Hall has rushed for 766 yards this season on 4.6 yards per carry. He'll churn out yards as long as he's not facing a top run defense or the Jets are forced to abandon the run due to game script. On Sunday, Hall and Jets host the Falcons who can't stop the run and will likely be unable to build a big lead. This should be a competitive game with the Jets installed as 2.5-point home underdogs against Atlanta who has lost five of its last six. The Falcons are 28th in the league in success rate against the run while ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (133.1).

Kirk Cousins picked up his first win of the season last week, but he’ll be without Drake London again and is overpriced in the interception market, even against the Jets. He threw two touchdowns and a pick last week while targeting David Sills, Darnell Mooney, Dylan Drummond, and KhaDarel Hodge. That’s a rough group of pass catchers, and it raises his interception risk again this week. Weather could also be an issue with possible rain and double-digit winds, which only helps the INT case. His two-interception prop at +600 is also worth a look. Last year, Cousins threw 16 picks in 14 games — one every 28 attempts.

John Metchie cashed for me last week, and I’m going back to his TD at a price that didn’t adjust enough after hitting +475 for a score in Week 12. Metchie stepped into a passing upgrade with Tyrod Taylor and operated as the WR1, playing 88% of the snaps, running 90% of the routes, and leading all Jets wide receivers with six catches for 65 yards. He also saw a red-zone target and turned it into a 13-yard touchdown. This is a WR1 priced like a TE2, and he’s facing a Falcons defense that is giving up 25 points per game over its last six contests.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Breece Hall has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.9% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.. Breece Hall has totaled a massive 5.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Breece Hall's 90.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a significant growth in his receiving talent over last season's 76.7% figure.. This year, the poor Falcons defense has allowed a staggering 0.36 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (26.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played).. After accruing 36.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has undergone big improvement this year, currently pacing 45.0 per game.. Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 30.4.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's unit has been lousy this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Darnell Mooney to total 8.1 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.. The projections expect Darnell Mooney to be a more important option in his team's air attack in this week's game (25.9% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.8% in games he has played).. Darnell Mooney has posted many more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to garner 6.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.. In regards to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 5.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. Bijan Robinson's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 21.9.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect John Metchie III to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.4% in games he has played).. John Metchie III's 94.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a noteable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 65.4% mark.. John Metchie III's 9.5 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a remarkable growth in his receiving talent over last season's 7.5 rate.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's contest, Kyle Pitts is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.3 targets.. While Kyle Pitts has accounted for 20.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Atlanta's pass game in this game at 26.5%.. After accruing 36.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has undergone big improvement this year, currently pacing 45.0 per game.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.