New York Jets

Picks

Hall is coming off back-to-back strong performances but those came in victories against the lowly Browns and Bengals. The Jets are 13.5-point road underdogs against the 8-2 Patriots this week which should lead to a negative game script and fewer carries for Hall. New England is elite against the run, holding opposing running backs to a league-low 57.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. The Pats rank fourth in defensive rush EPA and will stack the box since they won't fear a historically bad Jets passing attack under Justin Fields.

As of this writing TE Hunter Henry is priced at +160 to score a touchdown on Thursday but with Boutte, Stevenson and Hooper trending toward being out – especially Hooper – his ATTD ask will only get greater. Hunter has four touchdowns on the season and has drawn nine red zone targets – seventh among tight ends. He’s logged the sixth most snaps for this position and a target share north of 17% on the season. New England takes on a Jets defense that has been tortured by TE touchdowns in 2025, allowing seven scores to the position – most recently giving up a touchdown to Cleveland TE David Njoku in Week 10. Other books have Hunter to score a TD as low as +135, but you can get him at +160 at bet365.

New York’s secondary is “sans Sauce” after the trade deadline and could be without starting CB Azareye'h Thomas (concussion). Glenn’s man-heavy schemes are ripe for Stefon Diggs to do damage against, as he ranks among the top WRs in one-on-one coverage. New York has given up 25 passing plays of 20 or more yards this season but hasn’t faced a QB with arm like Maye in a while, taking on passive passing attacks like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Denver the past four games. Earlier in the year, the Jets were roasted by downfield throws from Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo. Diggs is averaging 11.1 yards per reception and has posted longs of 21 yards or more in four of his last seven games. 

Gang Green goes up against a stingy run stop unit in New England, which has slammed the door on rival RBs all season. And with gains on the ground hard to come by, Jets head coach Aaron Glen told reporters that the offense has to find other ways to get Hall involved. On the season, Hall has drawn three or more passes in seven of his nine games. And with the Patriots shutting down the run, opponents have targeted their RBs a league-high 71 times for 61 total receptions from the position. Player projections for Hall lean toward three receptions on TNF, with most models on the other side of the 2.5 O/U. At plus-money and with an emphasis on his involvement in the passing attack, there’s great value on Hall to have three or more grabs.

12 of the Jets' last 16 games have gone Over, while six of their nine games this season have topped this total of 43.5. The Patriots are also riding a four-game Over streak, fueled by an offense that’s caught fire with Drake Maye leading the MVP odds. With New England’s defense ranking last in the red-zone, this total feels too short for how both offenses are trending.