UFC 303 Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chaisson Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Silva's Star Rises

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson is a featured attraction on the UFC 303 undercard and one of our main events for tonight's UFC betting. 

Silva returns after coming up short for the vacant bantamweight title, and she’ll need to hope the same mistakes that cost her the title are corrected against the dangerous and durable Chiasson.

UFC odds have this an even fight with both Silva and Chiasson at -110. Here are my best free UFC 303: Silva vs. Chiasson predictions.

Silva vs Chaisson prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Silva moneyline (-110 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
   Over 2.5 rounds (-290 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Mayra Bueno Silva appeared poised to become the bantamweight champion at UFC 297 as she dominated Raquel Pennington and delivered a strong performance. However, Pennington managed to hang on and turned the tide, causing Silva to fade. Silva is now aiming to bounce back for a potential rematch against Chiasson, who also struggles with inconsistencies despite her promising talents.

Silva has showcased genuine finishing skills, a rarity in the female divisions, bolstered by her excellent BJJ and above-average striking. When she has energy left, she is formidable in close-quarters combat and a threat on the mat. However, facing a former featherweight in Chiasson — who will have a size advantage — Silva must avoid situations where Chiasson can initiate clinches or pin her against the cage.

Chiasson doesn't fight with the same intensity, but her cardio and durability are her strengths. However, she struggles when opponents close the distance and works hard to keep fights at her preferred range. She has been stopped twice in her last two fights: by submission to Pennington in 2021 and by an upkick from Irene Aldana in 2022, exposing her defensive vulnerabilities. When Chiasson puts her skills together, particularly her solid wrestling, she can be a challenging opponent to outlast over a full fight.

There is certainly a path to victory for Chiasson by surviving and outlasting Silva, but her lack of focus and defensive lapses make me hesitant to favor her. This being a three-round fight, if Silva can replicate the effort that nearly secured her a title shot in her last bout, I believe she has what it takes to secure the win. My pick is Silva.

Best best analysis

Maybe this fight does end up looking like Silva’s fight with Pennington, where her strong start was squandered by her gassing out and unable to stop her grapple-minded opponent from doing what they wanted. That was a five-rounder, and Chiasson isn’t as experienced or as skilled as Pennington, not to mention that her defense is problematic. Silva can put together a strong striking display in the first two rounds, and even if she does gas out, Chiasson will only have one round to potentially clearly win.

It isn’t impossible. Chiasson is going to be the bigger fighter in the octagon, and Silva might have to drop a lot of bombs, which could put her in a compromising position if she can’t hurt Chiasson or keep her backing up. I don’t see a stoppage either way, so my best bet for this one is that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chaisson odds

Method of Victory	Silva	Chaisson
To win outright	-110	-110
To win by KO/TKO	+1,550	+1,100
To win by points	+290	+165
To win by submission	+245	+675
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-29.

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Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chaisson tale of the tape

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