Yan Xiaonan vs Tabatha Ricci Odds, Picks & Predictions

The UFC heads to Macau and the co-main event between strawweights Xiaonan Yan and Tabatha Ricci looks to deliver on the action. This clash carries major implications for the division, and the winner will be in a great spot to challenge for the title.

UFC odds have Yan as a -200 favorite and Ricci as a +160 underdog. Here are my best Yanl vs. Ricci free betting picks from the Galaxy Arena in Macau.

Xiaonan vs Ricci prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Xianon moneyline (-200 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Xianon by decision (-115 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Though she can’t control it, Tabatha Ricci has benefited from some questionable judging over her last few fights, and fight fans are starting to take notice.

She’s won back-to-back fights against Angela Hill and Tecia Pennington in contentious decisions. In her split-decision loss to Loopy Godinez, one judge gave her every round on a dissenting scorecard. While Ricci can’t be blamed for what happens outside the cage, she might need all the help she can get going up against a legitimate beast like Yan.

Xiaonan Yan is one of the toughest fighters in the division, and what she lacks in power, she makes up for with volume and pressure. Her striking is crisp and consistent, and she’s capable of securing takedowns and defending them as well.

Yan is a fighter who’s very hard to come back against because of her fluid movement and ability to build an early striking lead. While she’s 2-3 over her last five fights, those losses came against top fighters in the division, including two current or former world champions and another high-level competitor.

Ricci has excellent cardio and relies heavily on her grappling, but her overall grappling game is limited, and her striking is subpar. Ricci excels at bullying her opponents backward, pinning them against the cage, and limiting their movement.

However, Yan’s strong takedown defense and footwork will make it hard for her to implement her offense as she tries to limit her striking output. Yan’s ability to maintain distance and punish Ricci as she tries to close in will make it difficult for Ricci to execute her game plan.

How successful Ricci is at disrupting Yan’s rhythm will be critical to her chances in this fight. Ricci is relatively easy to hit and has a negative striking differential, absorbing 5.30 significant strikes per minute. While Yan isn’t a power puncher, her consistent striking could wear Ricci down, potentially open up a cut, and put Ricci in a defensive position she’s struggled with before.

By all accounts, I don’t see an avenue for victory that Ricci can reliably exploit. Yan is likely to control the center of the cage, outwork Ricci in the stand-up, and avoid being taken to the mat. I’m confidently picking Yan to win.

Best best analysis

These are two solid contenders with excellent cardio and durability, and neither possesses notable finishing skills. As a result, this fight going the distance seems almost inevitable. My best bet is that Yan delivers a striking clinic and wins by decision.

Yan Xiaonan vs Tabatha Ricci odds

Method of Victory	Xiaonan	Ricci
To win outright	-200	+160
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+1,550
To win by decision	-115	+235
To win by submission	+2,250	+1,100
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 11-21.

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Yan Xiaonan vs Tabatha Ricci tale of the tape

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