UFC 309: Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Odds, Picks & Predictions

Charles Oliveira faces off against Michael Chandler in the co-main event for UFC 309 betting this Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York. These two fought for the vacant lightweight championship in 2021 with Oliveira winning in a thriller.

UFC odds have Oliveira as a -270 favorite for the rematch and I'm betting on Do Bronx to beat Chandler again. Here are my best free Oliveira vs. Chandler 2 predictions for Saturday, November 16.

Oliveira vs Chandler prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Oliveira ML (-270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Oliveira by KO/TKO, DQ, or Submission (-190 at BET99)

Fight analysis

When these two previously fought, Oliveira knocked out Chandler in the second round after a back-and-forth opening frame. Since that victory, Oliveira has gone 3-2 with stoppage wins against Top 5 lightweights Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Beneil Dariush and losses to current champ Islam Makhachev and No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan. 

Since that loss to Oliveira, Chandler has gone 1-2 and he hasn't fought in two years since he was waiting for a payday against Connor McGregor that never materialized. His only win during that span came against a washed-up Tony Ferguson in 2022.

While he knocked out Ferguson with a highlight-reel front kick in the second round, he ate heavy shots in the first round which isn't a great sign with the dangerous Oliveira on deck. 

Chandler still hits hard and has a good wrestling base but he's very hittable and Oliveira has more weapons and far better grappling ability. When you also factor in Chandler's lengthy layoff and his low fight IQ, Oliveira should win again

Best best analysis

Chandler is an aggressive fighter and he has a tendency to go out on his shield, with five of his last six defeats coming inside the distance. He's also 38 years old and has absorbed plenty of damage in his career so his durability isn't what it used to be.

Meanwhile, Oliveira holds the UFC record for submission wins (16) and most finishes (20). An incredible 14 of Oliveira's last 15 wins have come by way of stoppage with 10 of them ending before the midway point of Round 2.

Oliveira's moneyline price is a tad steep at -270 but we can chop that number down to -190 if we back him to win inside the distance once again.

Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler odds

Method of Victory	Oliveira	Chandler
To win outright	-245	+200
To win by KO/TKO	+225	+390
To win by decision	+950	+1200
To win by submission	+145	+975
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 11-16.

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Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler tale of the tape

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