UFC 305: Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds, Picks & Predictions

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a heavyweight battle on this UFC 305 undercard from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia

Tuivasa’s four-fight skid has him potentially fighting for his UFC career against the dangerous Rozenstriuk in a bout where either fighter just needs one good shot to end things.

UFC odds for tonight's bout have Rozenstruik as a -230 favorite and Tuivasa as a +180 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik predictions.

Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Rozenstruik moneyline (-225 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Rozenstruik by KO (-160 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Time hasn’t been kind to Tuivasa, who many believed established himself as a player following a second-round knockout of Derrick Lewis in 2022. Since then, he's lost four fights in a row and was finished each time out. It’s clear Tuivasa doesn’t belong anywhere near the peak of an anemic heavyweight division, but one would argue the same for fellow underachiever Rozenstruik. 

These two are likely going to slug it out and it will be a sloppy hoss fight, but Tuivasa is so labored with his hand speed it’s hard to see him actually get the jump on Rozenstruik.

While Rozenstruik is no world-beater, he's just as strong and has better conditioning and striking resistance. Neither fighter can take pride in their defense, but a key factor leading to Tuivasa’s skid is he overly telegraphs his shots so they’re hard to miss.

That’ll work for Rozenstruik, who delivers his best shots when countering. While Tuivasa will be quick to close the distance, and neither fighter will bother with takedowns or anything out of the ordinary if they tie up, Rozenstruik should find an opening early on and make his opponent pay in a big way.

I haven’t seen much of an upside for Tuivasa in his recent downturn, and failing to get it done in his most winnable fight over the last two years won’t bode well for him. Even so, Rozenstruik is the pick.

Best best analysis

This fight will not go the distance. This is a heavyweight featuring Tuivasa, who has signs of a cracked chin and has been knocked down and finished in his last four fights. There’s a chance Rozenstruik holds off on pushing his offense early as he tries to get Tuivasa’s timing down, but he works with a thudding jab and a better technical style than Tuivasa. 

Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik odds

Method of Victory	Tuivasa	Rozenstruik
To win outright	+180	-230
To win by KO/TKO	+245	-160
To win by decision	+1,050	+790
To win by submission	+2,400	+2,250
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-17.

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Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik tale of the tape

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