Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady Odds, Picks & Predictions

Gilbert Burns takes on Sean Brady tonight in the main event for UFC Fight Night.

This should be an intriguing matchup between a pair of Top-10 welterweights. UFC odds have the No. 8 ranked contender Brady as a -180 favorite, with the former title challenger Burns listed at +155. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady predictions for September 7.

Burns vs Brady prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Burns moneyline (+150 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight to go the distance (-115 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Sean Brady holds a 16-1 career record, with his only loss coming in 2022 when he was knocked out in the second round by current champion Belal Muhammad. He has fought only once since then, submitting Kelvin Gastelum to win a Performance of the Night bonus last December.  

Gilbert "Durinho" Burns lost by decision to Muhammad in 2023 and he's now on a two-fight skid after getting knocked out by Jack Della Maddalena in March. However, it's worth mentioning that he badly injured his shoulder against Muhammad and fought the final four rounds with virtually one arm. Burns was also winning against JDM before getting caught with a knee with two minutes remaining. 

Burns is 38 years old and has taken a lot of damage in recent years, which brings up questions about how much longer his chin can hold up. That said, Brady has never won by KO/TKO in seven fights in the promotion and he doesn't have the power to exploit Burns' diminished durability. 

While Brady has generally relied on his BJJ to win fights, Durinho is an elite grappler in his own right and might have a slight edge on the ground. Brady has also never been scheduled for more than three rounds and has shown a tendency to fade late in bouts, while Burns has experience in 25-minute fights and he has the cardio to keep up the pressure in the championship rounds. 

With Durinho boasting the edge in power, experience, and cardio, I'll lean towards him at plus money. 

Best best analysis

Often when two fighters with a wrestling background square off, the fight stays standing up and becomes a striking battle.

However, jiu-jitsu specialists tend to test each other's BJJ, which can lead to extended grappling and scrambling sequences. Those exchanges will drain time off the clock and sap the energy of both fighters, resulting in less striking activity.

Burns has gone the distance in eight of 12 career fights at welterweight. It will be tough for either guy to finish the other, which has me betting on this fight to go the distance. 

Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady odds

Method of Victory	Burns	Brady
To win outright	+150	-180
To win by KO/TKO	+425	+335
To win by decision	+550	+160
To win by submission	+900	+790
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-7.

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Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady tale of the tape

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